The barrel of oil once again exceeded US$100 on Thursday, propelled by the resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran since July 7 and fears of an extension of the conflict, which revives concerns about global supplies of black gold.
• Also read: Oil: the barrel of Brent reaches $100 for the first time since May
A look back at previous episodes which pushed the barrel above this symbolic threshold.
2008, the year of all records
The two crude benchmarks (Brent and WTI) exceeded US$100 for the first time at the beginning of January and reached their historic highs on July 11, at US$147.50 for a barrel of Brent and US$147.27 for WTI, listed in New York.
Several factors are causing prices to explode: demand driven by emerging countries, led by China, and supply which is plateauing; the awareness that reserves are limited and more difficult to access; geopolitical tensions, from Iran to Nigeria via Pakistan; the weakness of the dollar; finally, a bulimia of investment funds for raw materials.
The funds use oil as an anti-inflation investment but, in a vicious circle, they fuel the rise in prices by pushing up crude oil.
The bankruptcy of the American bank Lehman Brothers in September and the start of the subprime crisis reversed the trend. Fearing deflation, investors dumped oil, causing prices to plunge.
2011-2014, Arab Spring and tensions in the Middle East
Between 2011 and 2014, the barrel of Brent mostly traded above US$100, and WTI frequently exceeded this level.
The threshold was crossed in early 2011 during the Egyptian revolution. Egypt is not a major crude producer, but the country is home to two major oil transport routes, the Suez Canal and the Suez-Mediterranean (Sumed) oil pipeline, which explains the nervousness of the market, which fears supply disruptions in addition to the spread of protest movements in the Middle East.
In 2012, it was the strengthening of economic sanctions against Iran, suspected by the West of wanting to acquire atomic weapons under the cover of a civil nuclear program, which supported prices.
An embargo on Iranian oil was decided by the European Union in early 2012 and Iran’s crude exports fell by half. Tehran then threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz through which a large part of the oil produced in the Gulf countries transits.
The price of crude oil briefly fell below US$90 per barrel in June 2012, weighed down by the economic crisis in the euro zone.
Then until 2014, the barrel of oil moved almost continuously above US$100, supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, notably the Syrian conflict.
At the end of 2014, oil prices began to plummet, falling below US$50 per barrel in early 2015 due to American shale oil flooding the market.
2022, the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Russia launches the invasion of Ukraine at the end of February 2022. Both black gold benchmarks exceeded US$100 on February 24, with investors fearing disruptions in hydrocarbon supplies from Russia, one of the largest producers in the world.
In March 2022, prices are approaching their 2008 record highs, with Brent peaking at US$139.13 per barrel and WTI at US$130.50.
The war in Ukraine is reshuffling the cards for oil flows. Fears of insufficient supply, against a backdrop of Western sanctions accumulating against Russia – and even as demand recovers after the COVID-19 crisis – are keeping prices mostly above US$100 until the summer of 2022.
2026, war in the Middle East and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
The conflict in the Middle East began on February 28, 2026 with the Israeli-American offensive against Iran, which responded in particular by blocking the Strait of Hormuz and by attacks on the energy infrastructure of several countries in the region.
The reduction in the hydrocarbon export capacities of the Gulf countries caused a new surge in prices: a few days later, as the conflict bogged down, the barrel of oil exceeded US$100.
Until mid-May, Brent essentially moved beyond this threshold, reaching a high of US$126.41 per barrel. WTI also crossed this symbolic bar several times, even touching US$119.48 per barrel.
Hopes of de-escalation, weaker demand from China, and a massive release of strategic oil reserves, caused prices to fall again in June.
The downward movement accelerates at the time of the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States.
