On July 8, at the NATO summit in Ankara, Emmanuel Macron announced that the “coalition of the willing”, which brings together 28 of the 32 NATO member countries in support of Ukraine, will soon conduct military exercises. The objective is clear: “give credibility and consolidate” the coalition, and take it a step further towards European defense independent of the United States.
Indeed, a military alliance draws its credibility from the interoperability of its forces, acquired through joint training, much more than from a formal legal text. In doing so, Europe is taking control of its defense to maintain control of its destiny and maintain a dissuasive capacity vis-à-vis Russia in the context of American disengagement.
Contempt for his allies
In fact, NATO is, more than ever, in a state of “brain death”, Donald Trump’s second term having seriously damaged its credibility.
Through his words, the American president constantly exposes his contempt for his allies, towards whom he feels resentment due to the almost unanimous condemnations of his intervention in Iran, while he was expecting operational support. For example, he indicated, shortly before the Ankara summit, that he was only going to Türkiye “out of respect for President Erdogan”. And on July 8, in the middle of the summit, he declared that he was “very angry with NATO”.
Through his actions, Donald Trump has emptied the very notion of an ally of its substance. The United States’ security partners have not escaped the tariffs, and have sometimes even been hit with particularly high customs duties, like Canada. Furthermore, the American president explicitly threatened the territorial integrity of a NATO member, Denmark, by reaffirming on multiple occasions – the latest being on July 7 – that he intended to take possession of Greenland.
He thus forced Emmanuel Macron to recall that an alliance “obviously includes rules of solidarity so as not to attack each other”. Finally, the Pentagon announced last May the withdrawal of 5,000 American soldiers from Europe, before Trump threatened, in Ankara, to withdraw all of its 80,000 troops there.
Political credibility to build
Beyond Trump’s escapades, it is clear that the strategic divergence between the United States and Europe is structural. With the strengthening of Chinese economic and military power, which is hot on the heels of the United States technologically and threatens Taiwan, the American pivot towards Asia is accelerating.
The conflict in Ukraine is relegated to the background given the risk of blocking Taiwanese semiconductor trade and Beijing’s expansionist policy in the China Sea, which threatens freedom of navigation. Politically, the American electorate is much more worried about China, a threat considered almost existential, than about the security of Europeans. American disengagement from Europe is therefore not just a passing fad, but a lasting phenomenon.
This is why a European pillar of NATO becomes essential. Initially dedicated to supporting Ukraine, the “coalition of the willing” is gradually taking shape. If the announced military exercises create operational credibility, that is to say the collective capacity to act in concert in the face of external aggression, it remains to build political credibility and capability credibility for the coalition to become a true defense alliance.
Formalizing collective solidarity
Political credibility arises from the conviction that, if one country is attacked, others will effectively assist it. If the invitation to the members of the coalition to march on July 14 sends a signal in the right direction, the next step would be to formalize collective solidarity through a legal act or, at a minimum, a political declaration. In addition, the presence of Turkey, an illiberal regime with sometimes divergent interests with Europe (particularly in the Aegean Sea) raises questions.
Capability credibility is based on the existence of an autonomous defense industrial and technological base, capable of producing the full range of weapons necessary for the defense of the coalition. Clearly, Europeans must be able to produce their own weapons so as not to have to depend on the United States. This is particularly true in the field of intelligence capabilities, ultra-fast connectivity (the European leader, Eutelsat, is still far from the performance of Starlink) and anti-ballistic missiles (there is no equivalent to the American Patriot missile, even if the Franco-Italian Aster comes close).
By announcing, in addition to joint exercises, “new capability initiatives”, particularly in anti-ballistic matters, and France’s participation in NATO’s Advanced Land Forces in Finland, Emmanuel Macron shows his desire to continue the transformation of the “coalition of the willing” into a European pillar of NATO. However, the next presidential election will be decisive: the coming to power of a populist leader would considerably weaken the credibility of NATO and the coalition, because it could block the consensus necessary for the activation of article 5, including the mutual assistance clause.
The “coalition of the willing” will only become a true European pillar of NATO if the Europeans agree to follow through on the logic involved: transforming an ad hoc coalition into a permanent security community, capable of lastingly deterring Russia.
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