The American Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, does not hesitate to declare that the NATO summit to be held on July 7 and 8 will be one of the most important since the creation of the organization, 77 years ago. His boss, Donald Trump, has just criticized NATO for not mobilizing alongside the United States in the war against Iran. A situation according to him “ridiculous”. Trump had previously threatened to withdraw the United States from NATO. Behind these publicity-hungry antics, however, lies a reality that Trump cannot express in public: the United States no longer has the means to defend Europe as before. Without really realizing it, Trump is thus extending the Guam doctrine which announced a decline in direct American military involvement in Asia.
1) What is the Guam Doctrine?
The Guam Doctrine was articulated in 1969, in Guam, by Richard Nixon. It is also called the “Nixon Doctrine”. Faced with the astronomical costs of the Vietnam War, Nixon decided that from now on the Asian allies of the United States would have to assume their own military defense. He added that the American government would continue to help its allies in all kinds of ways and that the United States would protect them under the American nuclear umbrella.
2) What are the parallels with Europe?
Under Nixon, the United States was the leading economic power. They generated around 30% of the world’s wealth. Fifty years later, in purchasing power parity, their weight is only 15% of world GDP. Trump does not want to expose this harsh reality to his supporters, because he boasts of having restored the United States to its former power. In the late 1960s, the American public refused to send soldiers to be killed in distant conflicts. Nowadays, Trump’s Republicans have managed to get elected by proposing a new isolationism. However, while Nixon reached out to US allies, in public Trump appeared to be rejecting them.
3) Why is the next NATO summit so important?
NATO leaders should redefine the parameters of the alliance. Not only should the United States’ total share of funding for the organization continue to fall, but the defense industries of NATO countries should also be reorganized to allow for better distribution in Europe. The strategy to fight against Russia, and therefore against China, should also be strengthened.
4) Could Trump derail the discussions?
Trump could certainly sabotage the discussions. Last April, repeating an old insult from Mao against the United States, Trump called NATO a “paper tiger”. Fortunately, most elected officials in the American Congress are against their country’s exit from NATO.
