The provincial elections in New Caledonia finally took place this Sunday, June 28, 2026, after a two-year postponement. The results should be welcomed in the same peaceful climate that prevailed for the electoral campaign and voting operations. As was predictable, the FLNKS, the historic independence party, and its allies were victorious in the North and the islands, while the loyalists won in the large southern province. The majority of Congress should remain in the hands of the former. These results are therefore difficult to read from the perspective of clarifying the future of the island.
The main reason for this is the institutional complexity of this distant French territory, where the administrative millefeuille, with vague borders, is coupled with gaps in economic and demographic development which prevent republican equality as it is experienced in mainland France. In New Caledonia, the future inevitably requires a skilful articulation of differences.
For now, we can be pleased that the New Caledonian population has returned to the polls – the last provincial elections were seven years ago – even if abstention remains high in places. But the paths to the necessary institutional dialogue are not yet clear. On the Caillou, the majority fact does not provide a political path of passage. The outcome depends on a three-way compromise: supporters of independence, its opponents and the metropolis, which will, in turn, experience a major electoral sequence in the months to come. Between LFI, which does not hesitate to talk about Kanaky, and the right and the extreme right, classically attached to the loyalists, the perspectives can change completely and once again escape the inhabitants on site.
