The waltz of prime ministers continues in the United Kingdom. Keir Starmer’s resignation this Monday reflects the political fragility of the country since the Brexit referendum ten years ago. Five leaders have succeeded one another at the helm, failing to get the economy out of the doldrums: leaving the European Union caused a loss of 6 to 8 points of GDP, according to different studies. The Brexiters promised a recovery thanks to greater freedom of maneuver. On the contrary, the United Kingdom found itself isolated and the financial markets forced it to adopt a rigorous, and therefore unpopular, budgetary policy. Unable to deviate from this, Keir Starmer saw his political capital plummet and his party slip away from him.
Does his fall express a disavowal of Brexit? Not directly. But ten years after the 2016 referendum, the British mood has changed. Around 60% of them say they are “pro rejoin” – in favor of a clear rapprochement with the EU. Keir Starmer had also initiated discussions with Brussels with a view to streamlining trade. The subjects, technical, reflected an opening in small steps. His probable successor, Andy Burnham, could take a more proactive approach.
The British example so far shows that leaving the European Union is not a good bet for a member state. The EU is a powerful geopolitical entity, which tends to better protect its internal market and to further assert its sovereignty. It is presumptuous to leave this ship in a world where challenges are piling up. Public opinion is aware of this within the Union. This is why the parties which are intrinsically hostile to it are changing their discourse: they are proposing a radical transformation of Europe – which would in fact lead to its destruction. What do voters think? The next big event will be the French presidential election in spring 2027.
