The final text of a comprehensive peace agreement between the United States, Israel and Iran is no longer a distant diplomatic aspiration, but a likely reality. When Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed that the electronic signing of the peace agreement was expected within the next 24 hours, the announcement marked a profound change in the mechanics of global crisis management.
While nightly maritime frictions in the Strait of Hormuz and a relentless wave of media skepticism suggest continued volatility, the underlying reality is clear. The diplomatic progress achieved via the Islamabad Memorandum reveals that local secondary powers have emerged as the indispensable stabilizers of a fractured international order, stepping into the void left by traditional multilateral institutions that have repeatedly failed in their obligations.
A progressive resolution plan
The dominant discourse has consistently characterized the war in the Middle East, which erupted following the collapse of indirect talks and the subsequent military escalation, as an unmanageable crisis, solvable only through direct intervention by the superpowers or through unilateral military deterrence. This perspective is incomplete.
The success of the Islamabad Framework demonstrates that when traditional global powers face structural impasse, non-aligned states with cross-bloc legitimacy can play a critical role. Pakistan’s unique position, which maintains deep strategic ties with Washington and Riyadh while sharing a direct border and delicate diplomatic channels with Tehran, allowed it to develop a progressive resolution plan that conventional international institutions could neither propose nor implement.
This diplomatic evolution is occurring across three interconnected dimensions, each illustrating why a regional approach has succeeded where conventional multilateralism has failed. First, the strategy relies on the mechanisms of asymmetric credibility. In a highly polarized geopolitical landscape, direct bilateral discussions between opposing states often carry prohibitive domestic political costs.
Pakistan overcame this obstacle by positioning Islamabad as a neutral venue, initiating high-stakes discussions that allowed Donald Trump’s administration to pursue its strategic goals while providing Tehran with an honorable exit strategy that avoided the appearance of capitulation.
An urgent inner necessity
Second, the approach combines regional stability with national economic survival. For a Gulf energy-dependent importing nation, the partial closure of sea lanes has forced an internal awareness of economic exposure, converting vulnerability into active, high-level diplomatic mobilization. For Pakistan, mediation was not an abstract foreign policy exercise; it was an urgent inner necessity.
Third, this strategy integrates the issue of real maritime security into diplomatic frameworks. By combining a concrete stabilization posture with clear diplomatic text, the mediation process addressed the fundamental security concerns of surrounding trading nations while managing the immediate commercial anxieties of the international market.
A key lesson from this process is that traditional military deterrence does not automatically translate into lasting conflict resolution. Although the initial joint strikes significantly changed the landscape for the region’s leaders, they also created a highly volatile security vacuum that threatened global energy corridors.
The fragile truce that followed in April proved that military dominance alone cannot guarantee long-term maritime or territorial stability. True stabilization requires a parallel diplomatic track, managed by actors who understand regional nuances. The Islamabad Memorandum succeeds in decoupling long-term regional security from immediate military postures, providing a structured framework that provides tangible economic relief to Iran in exchange for verifiable commitments regarding its nuclear program and maritime behavior.
A reorganized world order
The short-term impact of this breakthrough led by Pakistan is manifested in an immediate calming of the global energy market. Crude oil prices, which had suffered brutal fluctuations in the face of the threat of an extension of the strikes, reacted with an immediate stabilization after confirmation that a text would be approved by the various opposing parties.
On the immediate horizon, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz removes a major inflationary bottleneck for global consumers, demonstrating that intermediary diplomatic intervention has direct and concrete economic value. In the long term, Islamabad’s action sets a precedent for managing complex, multi-stakeholder crises in an increasingly multipolar world.
This new paradigm is based on four transformations. First, replacing external, centralized security mandates with regional, flexible mediation frameworks. Second, the use of middle powers to provide neutral, unofficial diplomatic channels to highly polarized adversaries. Third, the close coupling of localized maritime security initiatives with broader geopolitical peace texts. Fourth, recognition that domestic economic vulnerabilities can serve as powerful incentives for intermediary states to actively enforce regional stability.
As global trade networks and institutional frameworks come under increasing pressure from geopolitical rivalries, the ability to resolve complex security crises will increasingly depend on these localized diplomatic interventions. The imminent signing of the peace agreement between Washington and Tehran does not signal a return to the old status quo; rather, it marks the beginning of a reorganized world order where intermediary states serve as essential anchors of international systemic stability.
About opinions
This text is signed by a guest author. He expresses his opinion and not that of the editorial staff. Our Live section aims to allow the expression of pluralism on religious, social and current affairs subjects, and to encourage dialogue, according to the criteria set by our editorial charter.
Share your opinion in comments or by writing to us at: readers.lacroix@groupebayard.com
