The proposed deal between Iran and the United States could return both sides and the entire world to virtually where it was before the Israeli-US strikes in late February, an international politics expert believes.
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“What’s quite fascinating about the idea that there could be a deal is that Trump only talks [de] all the concessions that Iran would make. But if there is a negotiation, let’s forget the idea of an unconditional surrender then defeating the regime, if there is a negotiation, we cannot imagine the Iranians not having some demands. In exchange for what will they lift the blockade? », asked Guillaume Lavoie, associate member of the Raoul-Dandurand chair, in an interview with LCN on Friday.
According to several observers, Tehran would receive around $24 billion in assets frozen abroad.
If the amount of the “check” is the subject of speculation, this is also the case for the moment when this sum will be paid.
“There is no significant mutual trust between the two. Imagine if you think I’m an absolutely bad faith cheater and you give me my entire check on day one; there, you no longer have any room for maneuver,” underlines Guillaume Lavoie.
“Are they going to get it in little drops? But what’s going around is as soon as they open the strait, a huge check comes. And the other issues – Lebanon, nuclear power and others – there is a little clause at the bottom which says: “we agree to talk about it later”, he adds.
LCN screenshot
Donald Trump’s priority could not be clearer: Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And the rest remains secondary, believes the associate member of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair.
“If tomorrow morning the strait reopens, we are exactly where we were on February 27, with the difference that the Iranians have 24 billion dollars more in their pockets. So he’s not exactly the great negotiator,” he summarizes.
According to the latter, American demands have been constantly revised downwards since the start of the conflict.
“At the beginning, it’s: the diet is over. Then it’s: we’re not negotiating, it will be an unconditional surrender. Then it’s nuclear power and nothing else. Then it’s the strait first. If you’re on the other side of the equation, you’re saying: The longer I wait, the less demanding he is. It’s a bit like how the Iranians read it,” proclaims Guillaume Lavoie.
Lukewarm promise on nuclear power
According to leaked media reports, Iran may agree to cease nuclear weapon development for a period of 60 days.
“It’s not a promise that commits much, since it’s something that we’re considering for years,” says the specialist in international politics.
The current conflict has also demonstrated that Iran was able to defend itself and resist attacks from Washington and Jerusalem without resorting to nuclear weapons.
“Iran is capable of blocking the strait, of having bombarded the Arab countries around it with low quality missiles – but in number, that counts – with low quality drones – some with plywood wings – but in very large numbers, and capable of terrorizing neighbors and trade,” maintains Guillaume Lavoie.
To see the full interview, watch the video above.
