The Israeli Parliament announced on Sunday July 12 the holding of legislative elections for October 27, a vote widely considered a referendum on the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Knesset, the name of the Israeli Parliament, must end its term on July 17, allowing the ruling coalition to complete its four years, for the first time in several decades.
In a statement, Parliament’s legal adviser, Sagit Afik, indicated that the current legislature was expected to complete its mandate, and that therefore “the elections were (…) fixed by law for October 27, without any consideration of shortening the mandate of the Knesset.”
This vote will be the first organized since the unprecedented attack by the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas on October 7, 2023, which sparked war in the Gaza Strip and opened other fronts for Israel in the region.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in Israel’s history, has announced his intention to run for another term. Entangled in a corruption trial, the 76-year-old leader said he wanted to win this election, which could constitute the most decisive vote of his political career.
In recent days, his government, one of the most right-wing in Israeli history, has worked to pass a series of bills to consolidate its majority and approach the elections from a position of strength. The latest polls, however, show that a majority of Israelis want Benjamin Netanyahu to leave. Former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot now appears to be his main rival. Anger over the security failures surrounding the October 7 attacks remains strong and continues to weigh on the popularity of Benjamin Netanyahu.
Declining popularity
Public opinion also criticizes him for not having kept his promises of “total victory” over Hamas and the pro-Iranian Lebanese Hezbollah and for having been excluded from negotiations between Iran and the United States to end the war in the Middle East, the memorandum of understanding concluded having been judged by many to be unfavorable to Israeli interests.
A recent poll by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem found that more than 92% of Israelis believe Iran has won the war in the Middle East, while support for Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister fell from 40.5% in early March to 29.4% in June.
Last month, the Israeli leader said he wanted to “establish a broad national government.” By seeking to reach out beyond his camp, he seems to want to refocus his electoral discourse on national unity rather than ideological affiliation.
The public debate is also deeply marked by the question of compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men. Benjamin Netanyahu’s main allies from ultra-Orthodox parties have repeatedly threatened to bring down the government if yeshiva students (center for the study of rabbinic texts) were not exempted from the obligation to serve in the army.
Conversely, the Israeli army and a large part of public opinion believe that broader enlistment is necessary, after years of war while reservists spend periods under the flag.
Other issues likely to weigh on the campaign include the controversial judicial reforms launched by Benjamin Netanyahu before the outbreak of the war in Gaza, his ongoing corruption trial as well as uncertainties over the governance of the Gaza Strip, almost a year after an uneasy truce took effect.
