Oil prices ended lower on Friday, with the market believing in the signing of an agreement between Washington and Tehran to end the war in the Middle East, even if doubts remain.
• Also read: US, Iran reach agreement on peace deal text, Pakistan says
• Also read: “80 to 85%” chance of agreement with Iran “in the coming days”, according to Washington
• Also read: Why is the Iranian-American agreement supposedly so “close” taking so long?
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in August, lost 3.38% to $87.33.
Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, for delivery in July, fell 3.23% to $84.88.
Operators are counting on “a decisive breakthrough in negotiations between the United States and Iran” which “would lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz”, summarizes Andy Lipow, of Lipow Oil Associates, for AFP.
This strategic maritime passage, through which a fifth of the world’s oil normally passes, has been virtually blocked by Iran since the start of the conflict at the end of February.
The markets were therefore reassured by Donald Trump’s announcement on Thursday of a “very good agreement” with Iran, “once the documents are finalized”.
“The memorandum of understanding in Islamabad (capital of Pakistan, mediator of the negotiations) has never been so close,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X, calling on the media not to “speculate on its content and promising details “in due time”.
“If the United States believes that Iran is not respecting the conditions set,” it is possible that the situation could end in a stalemate, warns Andy Lipow.
A blockage could particularly arise around the sensitive issue of uranium enrichment by Tehran.
Analysts also point out that the market has already been confronted, on several occasions, with announcements of a diplomatic breakthrough, which ultimately did not come to fruition.
According to a CNN count, Donald Trump has already announced an imminent agreement 39 times.
Furthermore, “even if a deal were reached, returning supply to normal would not be as simple as flipping a switch,” notes Matt Britzman of Hargreaves Lansdown.
“It will be necessary to demine the Strait of Hormuz, restart production fields that have been shut down and repair damaged energy infrastructure,” underlines the analyst.
For experts at Oxford Economics, oil prices should “remain significantly above their pre-war levels” until the end of the year.
