Artificial intelligence (AI) is not causing a “widespread decline” in employment in OECD countries, where unemployment rates are near historic lows, according to the organization’s 2026 Employment Outlook report released Tuesday.
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“The unemployment rate in the OECD area stands at 4.9%, close to its historic low of 4.8% in June 2023. And we expect that employment in OECD countries will continue to grow by 0.3% this year and 0.6% next year,” said OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann, during a press presentation of the report.
“So far, there is no evidence that the increased use of artificial intelligence by businesses is leading to a general decline in labor demand,” noted Mr. Cormann.
“While AI is changing the skills businesses are looking for, and clearly AI is having an impact on demand, for now it is not weakening employment prospects for young people or for workers generally. AI is reshaping work rather than reducing it,” he said.
The report nevertheless notes that “the entry of young people into the job market is particularly difficult” and that “recent progress in generative AI” is “undoubtedly not unrelated”.
The labor market is also showing resilience in the face of the war in the Middle East, which has caused a surge in energy prices, according to the report by the economic organization, which brings together 38 countries from the American, European, Asian and Oceanian continents.
“Job creation remained robust in the face of the effects of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The number of job vacancies, which is a forward-looking measure of labor demand, has been declining since 2022 compared to its post-pandemic peak. But since the escalation of the conflict, job vacancies have generally stabilized,” noted Mathias Cormann.
“Overall, the employment outlook is positive, but many workers have not yet seen the full benefits of a dynamic labor market, including not seeing it reflected in their pay,” said the Australian OECD Secretary-General.
“In around a third of OECD countries, real wages are below the level recorded five years ago,” he said.
