“A new nuclear arms race is looming,” warns the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). The nine nuclear-armed states (United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, France, India, Israel, Pakistan and North Korea) spent nearly $119 billion on their nuclear arsenals last year, a record level, according to their study published Tuesday, June 9. This represents an increase of 19% compared to 2024.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) published a report on the same day which warns of the worsening nuclear risk, in a context of growing geopolitical tensions. This impressive increase in spending comes as these weapons are increasingly deployed by states. “I’m terrified,” Susi Snyder, ICAN’s program director and co-author of the report, told AFP. She also affirms: “The level of dangers is increasing. »
For Emmanuelle Maitre, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) and specialist in nuclear issues, there are several reasons for the increase in spending. “Nuclear deterrence is effective as long as it is credible, so we must modernize and prepare against new anti-aircraft defense systems.”
More than 12,000 warheads worldwide
In total, the nuclear powers have 12,187 nuclear warheads, according to Sipri. 83% of them are held by the United States and Russia, which have more than 5,000 warheads each. The downward trend in nuclear weapons stockpiles is expected to be reversed in the coming years, Sipri warns, “because the pace of dismantling is slowing, while the deployment of new nuclear weapons is accelerating.”
The weakening of strategic arms control systems and the rivalry between the great powers with nuclear weapons are all signs of concern. “Since the end of the Cold War, control agreements have allowed a major reduction in arsenals, but these treaties have disappeared, like New Start between the United States and Russia at the beginning of the year. Today, there is no longer a treaty that allows arsenals to be regulated,” explains Emmanuelle Maitre.
China, a desire for power
China is the power that is developing its nuclear arsenal the fastest. It went from 250 warheads in 2020 to 620 today. It could reach more than 1000 nuclear warheads by 2030. “China claims to be a great power on par with the United States, whereas a few years ago, it did not necessarily see the benefit of developing its nuclear weapons,” declares the FRS researcher.
“For the moment, Beijing does not have enough defensive capabilities, compared to the Trump administration, which is very ambitious with its Golden Dome project. The idea for China is also to adapt to those who could be their adversaries,” explains Emmanuelle Maitre.
Washington is in fact responsible for most of the spending on nuclear weapons, 69.2 billion dollars in 2025, or 12.4 billion more than in 2024. Not so much in favor of an increase in nuclear warheads as of modernization, or a deployment of warheads.
France’s advanced deterrent
In France, Emmanuel Macron delivered a highly anticipated speech on national nuclear power at the beginning of March. He announced a new doctrine called “advanced deterrence”. Paris will increase the number of its nuclear warheads, and stop communicating their number.
“A large part of the deterrence budget in France is devoted to the renewal of nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs),” indicates Emmanuelle Maitre. “In France, there has always been the conviction that it was necessary to invest. The renewal of the four SSBNs was planned and necessary, it was a planned investment,” she indicates.
According to the researcher, with the announcement of a potential increase in warheads and the desire to no longer communicate, France is “following the global movement of strategic competition”. She perhaps also wants “to be able to deter several adversaries at the same time, if her allies are unable to come to their aid”.
