The results of the exceptional heat wave that oppressed hundreds of millions of Europeans for two weeks remain provisional, but already establish this heatwave as one of the worst, rivaling that of August 2003.
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A mass of hot air from North Africa entered shortly after mid-June via the Iberian Peninsula, then stationed over France and as far as England, before slowly crossing the continent to exit from the east at the beginning of July. It was described as “historic” by several experts, including the German Meteorological Service.
Severe and historic
The heat wave was quickly compared to that of August 2003 which marked a generation of French and Europeans and killed tens of thousands of people.
Alvaro Silva, climate expert at the World Meteorological Organization, explains that duration is one of the criteria for measuring the severity of a heat wave, along with intensity and geographic extent.
As such, this wave was not as long as that of August 2023.
“But we recorded many temperature records during this heat wave, and the most impressive thing was that it was still June. So it’s a big difference,” he told AFP.
For its part, the German meteorological service DWD judges that “we have never experienced such a long and intense heat wave so early in the summer, neither in Germany nor in many other regions of Europe”.
“Direct comparisons with historical events are not simple, because each heat wave presents different characteristics,” observes the British meteorological service, the Met Office, which nevertheless estimates that this wave was “one of the most significant” in the country, due to a combination of “persistent heat, exceptional humidity and very hot nights”.
The heatwave was of an intensity never before observed in France, Météo-France concluded, but it was a little shorter than that which affected the country in August 2003, with 14 days compared to 16.
The Czech Republic had never experienced such a long heat wave in June, and records were shattered, Radim Tolasz, climatologist at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, told AFP on Friday.
The World Weather Attribution, a network of climatologists, described it on Friday June 26, in the middle of the furnace, as the “most severe” heat wave ever observed in Europe, even before the end of the episode and including the forecasts for the following three days.
Its scientists have calculated that such a heatwave would have been “virtually impossible” in June without climate change. They estimate that a comparable phenomenon in June 2003 would have been 2°C cooler.
Numerous temperature records
Temperatures well exceeded 40°C in multiple regions during the heat wave.
Absolute records were recorded in Germany (41.5°C), Slovakia (41.3°C), the Czech Republic (40.6°C), Poland (40.5°C) and Denmark (37°C).
Records for the month of June also fell in France, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
Hundreds of millions of Europeans exposed
Areas inhabited by 410 million people have experienced temperatures of 35°C or more at least once, or more than two thirds of the population, according to an AFP analysis.
During the 2003 heatwave, 320 million people were exposed to these temperature levels in Europe (excluding Turkey) between August 1 and 17, AFP calculated using daily maximum temperatures from the European Drought Observatory and population data from the Joint Research Center.
A jump in deaths
The first estimates of excess heat-related mortality show large increases in the number of deaths in several countries.
– France: 2,025 deaths during the worst week, that of June 22, the majority of elderly people often living at home, an increase of 30%, according to the French Public Health agency.
– Belgium: 1,222 deaths between June 18 and 29, an increase of 39%, according to health authorities.
– Spain: 1,028 deaths attributable to heat in June, the highest total for a month of June since at least 2015, according to the Carlos III Health Institute. By June 2017, however, the country had recorded a figure quite close to 1,000 deaths attributable to heat.
– Netherlands: around 480 deaths during the week of June 22, mainly people over 80, according to health authorities.
