Washington announced on Wednesday that the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) will not be renewed this year. A political scientist suggests that Ottawa should perhaps wait for Donald Trump’s successor before starting new negotiations.
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Due to the refusal of the United States, the agreement will be extended from year to year. CUSMA came into force in 2020, replacing NAFTA. It can be renewed no later than 2036.
“The equation that really matters is the calculation that Donald Trump, with each day that passes, has a little less power and room for maneuver than he had before,” explained Guillaume Lavoie, in an interview on LCN on Wednesday.
The political scientist believes that the current president has an “hourglass against him” before the mid-term elections or with his mandate which will end in 2029.
“Perhaps here, Canada and many others have an advantage in playing the clock and waiting until there are either more reliable partners, or someone else in the White House,” he stressed.
United States President Donald J. Trump welcomes Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to the White House in Washington, DC, May 6, 2025.
MEGA/IF
The specialist in American politics wants to clarify a “surreal” aspect: CUSMA was signed under the Trump administration, which was in its first term in 2020.
“The agreement in question here, which Trump says he so dislikes, was not only signed by him, it was renegotiated at his own request,” he said.
This unfortunately adds a layer of uncertainty in an already tense socio-economic context, according to him.
“Nothing guarantees us that Donald Trump would not use the famous six-month period, which is the termination period, for a new game,” launched the political scientist.
The president will certainly seek further concessions. However, let us remember that the Carney government has already done some, notably the Digital Services Tax which was to target web giants (GAFAM) in June 2025.
“The famous Netflix tax. And it was really a demonstration of good faith, declared Guillaume Lavoie. But that changed absolutely nothing. This idea that we could give something to Trump to get his agreement for the future is based on the fact that he would be a predictable partner, which he is not. »
Watch the full interview in the video above.
