Banxico reduces GDP by uncertainty to US policies

Due to the tendency and uncertainty that has caused these last days the new policies that the United States government plans to implement, The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) reduced the prognosis of this year’s Mexican economy, given that A lower consumption and investment activity is expected.

Despite not directly pointing out the issue of tariffs, it was clarified that these forecasts do not incorporate the effects of the commercial measures announced by the US.

That is to say, This new update could be even lower depending on whether the sources of uncertainty are completed.

Thus, by making known the quarterly inflation report, Banxico cut the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 1.2% waiting for this year from the report prior to 0.6%.

Growth expectation for 2026 is 1.8%

He explained that the interval for The variation of the expected GDP This 2025 is updated to one of between 0.2% and 1.4%.

“A high uncertainty prevails over the policies that the new US administration could implement and the scope that they could have,” reads the document that announced this Wednesday.

Therefore, he pointed out, these forecasts do not incorporate estimates on the possible effects in the economic activity of Mexico of the announced measures, including those associated with commercial issues.

While by 2026, although he expects a greater rhythm of expansion, the specific expectation of Growth left it at the same level at 1.8%.

It will be put that, as in the previous report, the forecasts assume that economic activity would continue to exhibit weakness in 2025.

However, he warned that it would be more evident in the first half of the year, since private consumption and, especially, private investment, would show a low dynamism as a reflection of the environment of high uncertainty that persists.

He warned that the tax consolidation announced would limit the contribution of public spending to productive activity.

While external demand would increase throughout the year, in line with early behavior for industrial activity in the United States.

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