Peace negotiations in Ukraine: Europe, in question

This article was originally published in English

He has needed an hour and a half to destroy three years of unity. With its “highly productive” phone call with Vladimir PutinDonald Trump has set aside the western procedure norms to propose as the only intermediary that can sit to Russia and Ukraine to the table. “We have agreed that our respective teams begin negotiations Immediately, “Trump wrote on social networks. The tone of his post was so flattering that the reader could not distinguish which country he was invading to which.

After the call, a journalist asked the US president if he considered Ukraine an “equal member” of the peace process. Trump reculled And he said: “It’s an interesting question. I think they have to ask peace. His people are being killed. It was not a good war in which to get into,” he added, without saying who came first. Trump’s amazing comments were preceded by equally alarming statements of their Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegsethwho flatly ruled out the desired return of Ukraine to the borders prior to 2014 and their adhesion to NATO as “unrealistic” objectives that should not be part of any agreement with Russia to achieve a “lasting peace.”

Hegseth also ruled out providing any peace maintenance mission of the protection of article 5 of collective defense of NATO, the most powerful deterrent element of the Alliance, which in practice makes it impossible for any western country to compromise troops in the future. In Europe, the succession of ads hit like a whip.

During the last three years, European nations They have struggled to build A unified front against Putin’s overwhelming attempt to redesign the map of the continent. Despite the multiple setbacks along the way, and quite veto threatsEurope managed to close ranks and maintain a coherent and predictable policy. On Russia, pressure through sanctions and diplomatic insulation. To Ukraine, support through financial and military aid.

Brussels went further by granting Ukraine the status of candidate for accession to the European Union, weaving a deeper and narrower link between the block and the country devastated by war. The fate of Ukraine was intertwined with that of the EU, and vice versa. “Putin strives more than ever to win this war on the ground. Its objective is still the capitulation of Ukraine, “said Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, evoking a topic that has become Leitmotiv of its interventions.

“Not only is the destiny of Ukraine at stake. It is the fate of Europe“But now, after a phone call, the fate of Europe hangs from a thread. When positioning itself as the sole intermediary between Russia and Ukraine, Trump is drawing Europeand all its western partners, of the delicate equationleaving the entire continent as mere spectator of the most formidable peace process of the 21st century. His intention to meet with Putin, face to face, in Saudi Arabia, a country kilometers away from Europe, underlines its priorities.

It corresponded to President Volodimir Zelenski, with whom Trump spoke later, not before, his conversation with Putin, to put back in the conversation to the western coalition. “We believe that the United States force is sufficient To press Russia and Putin towards La Paz, along with us, along with all our partners, “Zelenski said.

Empty chair syndrome

Meanwhile, a dizzy Europe tried to regain balance. In a joint statement Made public on Thursday, almost at midnight, Foreign Ministers of France, Germany, Poland, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, along with Kaja Kallas, high representative of the EU, promised to make their voice heard. “Ukraine and Europe must be part of any negotiation. Ukraine must have solid security guarantees“They said.” A fair and lasting peace in Ukraine is a necessary condition for strong transatlantic security. “

Despite their good intentions, The statement did not offer any guarantee that someone from Europe, in addition to Ukraine, ensures a seat on the table. Trump, apparently, wants a format of three men to lead the entire process, without the participation of those who limit with Russia and fear being the next objective of Putin’s neo -imperialism.

The reason for exclusion is evident: Unlike his predecessor, Joe Biden, who was proud to unite Western allies against Kremlin, Trump has never shown interest in replicating that model. His vision of “first America” ​​and his intense Aversion for multilateralism They are, by nature, incompatible with any effort to maintain a united front. In fact, shortly after Trump’s possession, USA ceded the leadership of the Ramstein Group, an alliance of more than 40 nations that support Ukraine, Britain.

With Biden in the White Housethere was enough Atlantic harmony for Europe to trust that it would be a key actor in the mission of restoring peace in Ukraine and introducing reliable controls to keep Putin’s expansionism under control. With Trump in the White House, there is only cacophony. By the time Europe manages to cross the noise, it could meet the short end of the stick, or without any stick. “The topic does not end with a phone call between the president of the United States and the president of Russia. This is nothing more than the beginning.

And I don’t know exactly what will be the next step in the process, “said the chief spokesman of the European Commission, noting that Brussels had no prior knowledge of the phone call. The spokesman insisted that “both Ukraine and Europe” had to sit at the tablebut I couldn’t guarantee that they were offered that seat. The lack of a chair has been tormenting the worst nightmares in Europe for a long time.

Give Putin too much and you will never know where they will stop, they have warned the Europeans again and again, especially those of the East. Trump’s public admiration by Putin (once he called him “genius”) and his Transactional approach to foreign policy (He has compared the Gaza Strip with a “large real estate”) have reinforced the fears, long rooted, that negotiations, without Europeans in the room, would inevitably lead to an agreement that would leave Ukraine smaller and more weak and undermine the Security architecture throughout the continent.

The fact that Hegesh’s speech in NATO seems to reveal the White House cards before conversations with the Kremlin further aggravated the feeling of fatality. Donald Tusk, Franco Prime Minister of Poland, resorted to the notorious use of capital letters by Trump to underline how much he is at stake, betraying his despair. “All we need is peace. A fair peace,” Tusk wrote on social networks. “Ukraine, Europe and the United States should work together on this. Together.”