GDP: Has Jalisco entered an economic slowdown?

The economic uncertainty caused by the threat of imposition of tariffs by the United States to Mexico already caused a fall in economic activity in the country, and in Jaliscowhich is reflected in lower growth of the gross domestic product (GDP), drop in exports and job generationbecause companies are leaving their investment plans.

Mireya Pasillas Torres, academic from the ITESO Business School (ENI), explained that the deceleration could be prolonged depending on whether tariffs are imposed, or not, and the time they last.

“If the duration of tariffs remains all year, it would represent a drop of 2 to 3% of GDP. If they last little, because of the inertia that economic activity brings, we could close 2025 with zero growth, ”he said.

The specialist explained that the United States is the main commercial partner of Mexico and Jalisco, where about 80 percent of exports are allocated.

“This 80 percent of what we export will be more expensive for consumers there, but in Mexico it will have to produce less and that will represent for Mexican and foreign companies a fall in production and a fall in the Employment, ”he said.

The also responsible for the Economic Analysis Bulletin added that for the United States there will also be repercussions such as an increase in prices and in turn an increase in inflation.

“The prices of what we send, which is 15 percent would increase. If we add Canada, it would be another 14 percent; That is, almost 30 percent of imports would imply price increases, but it also depends whether it is a product of final consumption or part of a productive chain and that can have an impact on a negative way, ”he added.

The specialist clarified that there will be a lot of pressure from the United States companies operating in Mexico so that tariffs are not imposed, since their operating costs would also be raised.

“I think they are evaluating which sectors and what products would have a lower impact on the United States and a greater impact for us,” he concluded.

The entity grew below the national average in 2024

Official data indicate that the average growth in Jalisco During 2024 it was 0.68 percent, below the annual national average that was 1.48 percent.

“We are already in an economic slowdown, not only national, but here in Jalisco. We are below the growing national average and this uncertainty what will cause is that in 2025 the decline in economic growth continues, and we can even reach a stagnation, ”said Mireya Pasillas Torres, academic of the ITESO Business School (ENI).

Last year, Jalisco showed a growth lower than the national average, indicating a clear economic slowdown in the entity that could be exacerbated this year.

“The impact would be possibly stronger in Jalisco than the national average; Obviously it would be stronger for the border states that export more. ”

The growth of Jalisco Last year he contrasted with the performance of other entities with economies comparable to ours, such as Nuevo León (4.1%), State of Mexico (2.3%) or Mexico City (1.1%).

“What is confirming us is that economic growth in Jalisco is very indebble; In fact, when the second quarter was reported, it was negative, although they are generally corrected up. Anyway, the third quarter came out slightly negative. Already the three quarters as a whole what they tell us is that it is growing well below the national average. So, there is a slowdown, but it is stronger here, ”said Pasillas.

In the first economic analysis of this year, a projection of the closing of the national GDP of 1.46 percent was carried out, very close to the figure that the INEGI only shared.

CT