La Croix L’Hebdo : How does Donald Trump perceive the environment?
Pascal Canfin : Donald Trump has a relationship of domination towards nature. In his eyes, it is at the service of man: it can be exploited to the maximum and without limits. He also categorically denies the link between human activity and climate change. This makes him a climate denier. In his eyes, any action for the climate is considered un-American since it raises questions about the use of fossil fuels and the limits of our economic activity.
During his first term, from 2016 to 2020, the most significant event was the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. What was the significance of this political decision?
P. C. : Beyond the political display, obviously very strong, the consequences were relatively weak. Donald Trump succeeded neither in creating a coalition of countries against the Paris Agreement, nor in calling into question the architecture of the text, nor in stopping the dynamic of green investments in his country.
At the American state level, the pro-climate ecosystem has held up well through the We Are Still In coalition, which brought together more than half of the American economy. In the rest of the world, there was a favorable environment for climate action in 2016. We were then convinced that the Trump mandate would be a parenthesis and we turned our backs.
Given the international situation, would a new withdrawal from the Paris Agreement not have a greater impact this time?
P. C. : Today we are witnessing two contradictory dynamics. The first concerns multilateral tensions, notably the rivalry between the United States and China, which are paralyzing negotiations and UN political action in all areas: political, commercial, environmental… Donald Trump’s announced offensive against the principle even a multilateral climate action framework would therefore intervene in an overall more fragile context.
Conversely, the dynamic of investments in low-carbon technologies has strengthened compared to 2016. We live in a time of global competition for the deployment of zero-carbon economy value chains. This is true for renewable energies, for automobiles with electric cars, for batteries, for carbon-free steel, etc. We have moved from intentions to reality.
Around Donald Trump, we find businessmen who come from both the green industry and fossil fuels. Who will have the last word?
P. C. : There is strong pressure within Republican elected officials, governors and industrialists for the Trump team not to touch the major investment plan. (Inflation Reduction Act) of Joe Biden in favor of the energy transition, in particular because these investments are largely located in Republican states. If the American president abandons the projects undertaken, this will promote European competitiveness in the battle for green technologies, but will really do a disservice to the planet.
Concerning the American fossil industry, we should not expect major upheavals. It already occupies first place in the world and can hardly strengthen itself further. Donald Trump will undoubtedly try to sell more gas to Europeans, threatening to increase customs tariffs if he is not heard. However, Europeans have every interest in reducing their consumption of fossil fuels which penalize their competitiveness while strengthening their dependence on foreign importers.
On the Brussels side, we are also observing a surge in climate skeptic forces…
P. C. : The ecological transition has gone through three phases within the European Union. The first, which lasted until the Paris Agreement, consisted of talking a lot and acting very little. The Paris Agreement then the adoption of the European “green deal” in 2019 subsequently changed the rules of the game. Thanks to the reduction in coal consumption, the increase in renewable energies and the decarbonization of sites industrial, CO emissions2 decreased by 7% in 2023 alone.
From now on, we have entered a third sequence: ecology has become the object of a cultural war which was first waged by the Trumpists in the United States and now by the far right and part of the right in Europe. The anti-green discourse is now an element of the political identity of the National Rally in France, the AfD in Germany, Vox in Spain, Viktor Orban in Hungary… The European extreme right has basically taken over the Trumpist software . It is up to us to ensure that this does not weaken us in the face of the American president’s ideological offensive.