They all agree. From President Emmanuel Macron to the Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu, from the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, General Thierry Burkhard, to the Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot, all share the same observation and the same urgency: France and the French people must prepare for the return of high-intensity wars. This is why, they think, it is absolutely essential that it rearms as quickly and as powerfully as possible. “ The world is changing quickly and becoming more and more dangerous: we too must evolve quickly », warned Sébastien Lecornu during his wishes, on January 7, before Emmanuel Macron presented his to the armies, this Monday, January 20.
Three major threats identified
During these wishes, Sébastien Lecornu, the only minister to have remained in his post over the course of four successive governments, from Élisabeth Borne to François Bayrou, mentioned the three main risks that France must face. First, terrorism. Present in the Sahel and the Levant, it still directly threatens France. A danger whose level is considered “high”, according to the Ministry of the Interior. France must also adapt to nuclear proliferation: “ the accelerating nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea pose an ever more obvious threat to our interests », specified Sébastien Lecornu.
Finally, the Minister of the Armed Forces denounced Russia’s hybrid war against France and the European Union: electoral interference, use of migratory flows as a strategic weapon, informational war, digital space ” which has become in a few years a new battlefield which does not speak its name and which shifts the threat towards the civilian world, with our businesses but also our public services on the front line. »
A war economy to meet the challenges
Faced with these threats, the French authorities intend to promote a war economy, inviting arms manufacturers to significantly increase their production capacities, firstly of munitions: shells, missiles, heavy torpedoes, etc. But also of armored vehicles and tanks. Leclerc and Griffon, artillery with Caesar cannons, without forgetting aviation with Rafales and Tiger helicopters, and drones. To honor orders and ensure the rise in power of the French armies, the Defense budget was to reach 50.5 billion euros in 2025, but censorship from the Barnier government postponed its adoption. His successor, François Bayrou, should take over this budget: “ this is non-negotiable », Already warned Sébastien Lecornu. Just as the annual increase of 3.3 billion euros in this budget provided for by the Military Programming Law (LPM) 2024-2030 is non-negotiable.
« Even with this annual increase of 3.3 billion euros, the Defense budget is not sufficient to allow our armies to face a major confrontation on the Eastern European front. », Alerts Senator Hélène Conway-Mouret, vice-president of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee in the Senate. “ And to prepare for the renewal of major equipment in the 2030-2040 decades if we want to maintain superiority over our main competitors,” she adds. And to give this example: the reconstitution of the ammunition stock planned by the LPM 2024-2030 will allow France to last only two months in a high intensity conflict!
Uncertainties about 2025
The postponement of the adoption of the defense budget creates a worrying uncertainty regarding orders and deliveries planned for 2025. Among the deliveries scheduled this year, a dozen Caesar cannons, around twenty renovated Leclerc tanks, 14 Rafales, a plane A400M and a defense and intervention frigate.
Great vagueness, too, on the 400 million euros planned to modernize the equipment of the special forces and on the 1.9 billion euros for ammunition orders. Due to a lack of a timely budget vote, the launch in 2025 of the construction of the PA-NG, successor to the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier in 2038, is also compromised.