The re-election of Donald Trump raises concerns for American democracy. Beyond that, the realization of this program could engage the United States in real systemic change. Turning their backs on liberal and democratic capitalism, they will move closer to the authoritarian model of which Russia and China represent the paradigms to this day. Systemic change, this conservative revolution must be the subject of a synthetic look.
By combining an identity-based nationalism as an ideology, a proven authoritarianism as a political project and a patrimonial capitalism breaking with respect for the rule of law and competition, Trump’s program prefigures the establishment of a system that we have described as authoritarian national capitalism, or NaCA.
Trump’s speech reflects an identity-based, xenophobic and occasionally racist, even imperialist, nationalism, as opposed to the civic nationalism of the American liberal tradition. He is part of the cultural war which opposes American intellectual currents in particular through his radical denunciation of the woke current, which his administration will oppose by the various means at its disposal, thus joining the practice of NaCA in matters of defense of a cultural identity.
A conservative revolution
Trumpism represents the culmination of a conservative revolution, marked by the rise of an antagonistic vision of political competition between parties, since Newt Gingrich led the Republican Party to consider itself as the only representative of good, having to practice politics as a fight and more as a competition open to dialogue and mutual consideration.
The decline of democracy occurs above all through the questioning of counter-powers. By appointing three judges he likes to the Supreme Court during his first term, Trump has already secured the support of this essential institution and his multiple criticisms of the judiciary make it possible to anticipate the attention that he will attach to the appointment of new federal judges.
The media, another essential counter-power in a democratic society, are overwhelmed by the massive use of fake news on social networks, establishing a climate of post-truth to which Elon Musk’s X network has largely contributed while awaiting a dismantling of any regulation in the name of freedom of expression, anticipated by the recent removal of fact-checking procedures previously practiced by Meta on its Facebook and Instagram networks.
Personalization of power
To ensure the docility of federal civil servants, the announced measure consists of considering that many of them exercise political functions and, therefore, do not benefit from the statutory protection provided for by law. This provision will make it possible to lay off them in large numbers, as suggested by the objectives of the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency). This politicization of the administration, which could also affect the military institution with serious consequences, is once again in line with the practice of contemporary autocracies.
The exceptional personalization of his power will place Trump in the league of the great autocrats for whom he has often expressed his admiration. In line with the practice of these autocracies, its foreign policy will lead to a further weakening of international law and institutions. The sometimes worrying projects announced for the promotion of strictly American interests will help to legitimize the law of the strongest.
A new form of capitalism
Beyond the democratic decline which crystallizes concerns, the challenge lies in the establishment of a new variety of capitalism, dominated by a network of broligarchs – to use this neologism associating the quality of oligarchs with belonging to a network of “bros”, of brotherswith a macho connotation. Anticipating the outcome of the elections, the rallying of billionaires to Trump accelerated in the preceding months.
This act of allegiance involved three types of billionaires. At the forefront of course, the convinced, like Peter Thiel, founder of PayPal, for whom the expression of “capitalist democracy” is a “oxymoron”. In second place, we find billionaires motivated by the prospect of more advantageous taxation. The third group is particularly significant. These are capitalists who had previously opposed Trump, particularly after January 6, 2021, and who became aware of the likely future president’s potential to cause harm to their businesses. Typical example, Mark Zuckerberg, whom Trump had threatened with prison, increased gestures of allegiance during a notable visit to the president-elect at Mar-a-Lago.
If the resilience of American democracy does not make it possible to curb or reverse the implementation of Trump’s program, the United States will have permanently joined the clan of authoritarian powers, establishing a new variety of NaCA alongside the Sino-Russian models and the European populism.
Pierre-Yves Hénin wrote with Ahmet Insel Authoritarian National Capitalism. A threat to democracy (2021, Blue Around)