Starting this Thursday, January 9, 2025, the Climate Prediction Center indicated the official arrival of the “La Niña” phenomenon, with an anomaly between -1.1 °C and -0.7 °C at the end of December and beginning of January in the region.
According to José Martín Cortés, meteorologist at Meteored, the variation in the way temperatures are measured meant that the phenomenon was not declared months ago.
How intense will it be?
The models have adjusted to extend their presence with more than 90% certainty that it will continue throughout February, hovering around 80% during Marchwhen spring would begin, details José Martín Cortés.
LEE: This is how the polar air mass will affect the country this Friday
“La Niña” could continue until the end of April or May with 40 to 60%, to move to a neutral phase over the course of the summer. In the longer term (lower reliability), the neutral phase or a “Weak Girl” could be, estimating 45-55% and 30-35% potential respectively.
“Springs are naturally warm, but with La Niña the heat tends to be less intense, due to more active cold fronts with rain and cool air masses. Squalls in the Gulf of Mexico are frequent and hailstorms/tornadoes may increase,” says the Meteored meteorologist.
Rains tend to be less frequent, due to the position of the Jet Current, which limits the entry of extensive moisture into the country from the Pacific, although cold fronts on the Gulf of Mexico side continue to arrive with rains. According to the specialist, night frosts are more frequent and important in the Altiplano and northern states.
What is expected for the rest of the winter?
José Martín Cortés details that in the second half of January the entry of polar and arctic masses is feasible, highlighting after the 20th with arctic air that would cover a good part of the United States and at least the north, northeast and east of Mexico. as well as part of the Altiplano and southeast, with probable rain, snowfall and strong wind.
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At the end of the month and beginning of February, another polar-arctic mass could arrive, slightly of less relevance, but helping to have winter conditions. In February, the heat would begin, but there is still a tendency for powerful cold masses to regulate the environment; Although northern Mexico would be cold, it would be less intense, explains the meteorologist.
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