Venezuela: Maduro on track to be inaugurated for a third term despite protests

Outgoing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, with the support of the army and an administration under orders, must be sworn in on Friday for a third six-year term despite accusations of fraud from the opposition, isolation on the international scene and a difficult economic situation.

The ceremony, at midday, will be held the day after opposition demonstrations contesting the victory of the 62-year-old socialist in the presidential election on July 28, followed by deadly unrest and thousands of arrests.

Opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia claims to have won the vote and repeated Thursday from the Dominican Republic, an hour’s flight from Caracas, that he is the “president-elect”. Without bending the one who succeeded Hugo Chavez in 2013 and has since ruled the oil country with an iron fist.

«On the 10th, I swear with Maduro for the future» (on the 10th, I take an oath with Maduro for the future): the slogan in easy-to-remember rhymes was plastered on many walls for weeks. On Thursday, the government hit the nail on the head, with a march in support of the outgoing president which crossed part of the capital.

“The only elected president in this country is Nicolas Maduro, the people elected him and the people support him”said Noeli Bolivar, 28, one of his supporters.

” Kidnapping “ or « simulation »

The opposition demonstration also brought together thousands of supporters, shouting “we are not afraid” or holding signs stating “freedom cannot be begged, it must be conquered”.

It gave rise to some confusion at the end of the day when the opposition announced the arrest of opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, “violently intercepted”. A few dozen minutes later, the opponent’s team announced her release: “When leaving the gathering, Maria Corina Machado (..) was taken away by force. During her kidnapping, she was forced to record several videos and was later released.”.

The authorities denied this, with Attorney General Tarek William Saab denouncing “a psychological operation aimed at triggering violence in Venezuela” and recalling that Ms. Machado was the target of a criminal investigation.

The opposition leader had been living in hiding since the presidential election in which she was unable to run because she was declared ineligible. She supported the candidacy of Mr. Gonzalez Urrutia, who went into exile in September.

The National Electoral Council (CNE) proclaimed Mr. Maduro the winner with 52% of the votes, but without publishing the minutes, claiming to be the victim of computer hacking. A hypothesis considered implausible by many observers.

The CNE’s announcement provoked demonstrations throughout the country, which were harshly repressed. The post-election unrest resulted in 28 deaths, more than 200 injuries, and 2,400 people arrested for “terrorism”.

There was also a wave of arrests in the days leading up to the inauguration.

Army pillar of power

As during the demonstrations of 2014, 2017 and 2019, which left more than 200 dead, Mr. Maduro was able to count on the support of the army, the pillar of his power, as well as on justice under orders.

Nicolas Maduro had even activated a national security plan including all security forces (army, police, militias, paramilitaries, etc.) after denouncing new plots against him.

“The military sector is even more crucial than it was before the elections (…) Without control of military institutions, the government would find itself with extremely precarious power”explains Mariano de Alba, an analyst specializing in international relations based in London.

The socialist leader, who promised economic improvement during the campaign, will have to find solutions to return to growth while the country recorded an 80% contraction in its GDP between 2013 and 2023.

Isolated internationally, it will be difficult for him to lift the economic and oil sanctions which he will therefore have to try to circumvent in order to exploit the country’s immense oil reserves without having to sell them off due to the embargo.

He also promised constitutional reforms with laws that many NGOs consider repressive and likely to weaken democracy.