Why Donald Trump would love to get the Panama Canal back

More than a hundred years after its construction was completed and a quarter of a century after its transfer to the eponymous country, the Panama Canal continues to obsess America. In any case, Donald Trump’s America. On Tuesday, the president-elect of the United States reiterated his desire to annex this iconic construction, which nevertheless belongs to Panama. Worse still, the Republican added that he could not “guarantee” that he would not use armed force in order to recover it.

To understand these statements, we must first “take into account the history of the canal,” says Virginie Saliou. If its construction began with the French, it was quickly taken over in 1902-1903 by the United States, who completed it in 1914. » Not only was the canal built by the Americans, which maintains their legitimacy when these are matters concerning him, but in addition “it is part of the Monroe Doctrine, according to which the United States has a form of private territory, of control over Latin America”, explains the security researcher maritime to the Strategic Research Institute of the Military School (Irsem) and teacher at Sciences Po Rennes.

“Protect two facades” separated by 4,500 km

The existence of the canal is therefore intrinsically linked to the United States, but not only. This is also the case for the very existence of the country. “Panama was originally a province of a country called Gran Colombia, and they eventually became independent thanks to support from the United States. The country therefore exists largely thanks to Washington,” contextualizes Sylvain Domergue, associate doctor in geography and geopolitics, teacher at Science Po Bordeaux and specialist in maritime issues.

A historical proximity which does not, however, excuse the words of Donald Trump and, as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recalled this Wednesday, “the principle of the inviolability of borders applies to all countries”. Originally, “the United States was interested in the canal to obtain a capacity for deployment and redeployment of its military fleet. The country is faced with a geography where it is necessary to protect two facades, and therefore to have a navy capable of moving from one to the other quickly,” explains Sylvain Domergue. It is for this reason that when President Jimmy Carter agreed in 1977 to cede the canal to Panama (twenty-two years later), he negotiated a priority right of passage for the US Navy. But this privilege does not apply to merchant ships, even under the American flag.

From the United States to the United States (via Panama)

But today, American interests are less military than commercial. “On a global scale, the canal only represents 5 to 6% of maritime trade. However, a large part of the traffic is not between Asia and America as one might imagine, but between the east and west coasts of the United States! », explains Virginie Saliou. “About a quarter of the trade that passes through the Panama Canal originates at one point on American territory and goes to another point on American territory,” adds Sylvain Domergue.

“Within the United States, land transportation infrastructure is particularly failing. There are very few trains and it is extremely expensive by road,” he emphasizes. Rather than struggling to cross 4,500 kilometers to cross the width of the country, even more so by going around the Rocky Mountains in the middle, carriers therefore choose the Panama Canal. For all these reasons, this is also true for American exports.

China in the crosshairs

And this essential artery to the American economy is not likely to lose importance in the coming years. By 2040, the Federal Highway Administration (an agency of the United States Department of Transportation) predicts a 30% increase in freight transport in the United States. For Donald Trump, who started a fierce trade war with China during his first term, it is also a way of warning Beijing. “China is the second largest user of the Panama Canal, and it invests massively in port issues around the world,” notes Virginie Saliou.

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The Middle Kingdom is indeed very established in Panama. “The first thing you see when you arrive in the country are advertisements in Chinese. She has been investing heavily for years. The actor targeted by Trump is China,” assures Sylvain Domergue. It is therefore a warning for China but also a signal sent to Panama, because Donald Trump loves to use all the cards he has to bend his adversaries before the negotiations even begin. Much more than an invasion, the Central American country risks being put under incredible pressure to lower the price of its passages for American ships during the upcoming presidency.