TIsraeli-Palestinian drama, Iranian nuclear power, new Syria: the Middle East is in the process of being reconfigured. A new strategic profile is emerging, the map of power is changing, with winners and losers, many unknowns and a bit of continuity.
The old powers are in poor condition. The great lady of the banks of the Nile, Egypt (111 million inhabitants), lives under permanent drip from the International Monetary Fund; Iraq (44 million) is recovering from nearly half a century of war; Ravaged by fourteen years of internal conflicts, Syria (22 million) must be rebuilt. More than ever, Cairo, Baghdad, Damascus, cradles of some great dynasties, are giving way to the owners of hydrocarbons. Behind Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, in wealth and influence, dominates the old Arab world.
The powers that make the strategic news in the region are three non-Arab countries: Iran (85 million inhabitants), Israel (9 million) and Turkey (85 million). The relationships they maintain with each other but also each with their history shape the Middle East. If we have to keep score at the start of 2025, we will place Turkey at the top of the trio.
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It is a country with many diplomatic facets. Member of NATO but on good terms with Russia and China; predominantly Sunni (the predominant branch of Islam), it has relations with Palestinian Hamas but also, alternating cold and hot, with Israel. Nostalgia for seven centuries of regional domination, that of the Ottoman period, sticks to his skin. In a moment of poorly controlled hubris, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently said: “Every event in the Middle East, especially in Syria, reminds us that Turkey is bigger than Turkey (…) elle cannot limit its horizon to its current borders any more than it can flee its destiny” – quoted by journalist and professor James M. Dorsey on his site The Turbulent World.
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