Year after year, at the beginning, the Field workers often check the climate to determine how it will behave over the 12 months, following a traditional prediction method popularly called “cabañuelas”.
This custom has its origins in ancient times, without there being a document to certify it. It is used to predict the climate what will he do taking the first days of the year as a reference, this time, for 2025.
Regardless of the part of the world in which humanity has developed, this belief has taken different interpretations, hence with cultural exchange it ended up resulting in what is known today as “cabañuelas.”
This way of predicting the climate depends completely on observation, since hunting and planting customs had on the evolution of the climate throughout the year.
There is data from the time of Babylon that derives from what was then known as the Zamuc, or “Feast of Lots” and whose Hebrew tradition is known as “Feast of the Tabernacles”, as mentioned by some Internet portals.
In the case of Mexico and Latin America, there are also pre-Hispanic background that talk about the way in which different cultures made their meteorology calculations, using the winter solstice.
Although there is no document that has deepened the use and custom of cabañuelas, today, in countries like Mexico, The first 24 days of the year are usually taken as a reference to define what the weather will be like throughout the 365 days.
By tradition, the atmosphere that prevails on January 1 corresponds to the first month of the year, followed by January 2, which would be February, and so on until reaching January 12, which would have the climate of the month of December.
Subsequently, the return “cabañuelas” are applied, and that would be from January 13 to 24, with the 13th being the month of December; on November 14, and so on, until reaching the month of January again, on the 24th.
However, it must be clear that weather calculation and prediction is not a process of chance or luck, but rather the result of the conjunction of a series of factors to which Other phenomena are added, such as in this case they could be “El Niño” or “La Niña”, to mention the best known.
Even so, man has always looked for a way to predict the weather, whether to stay protected from possible storms or to prepare to plant or harvest.
Throughout human history, man has sought both orthodox and empirical methods to calculate or predict the climate, which has led to the creation of traditions such as “Groundhog Day” or the “Zaragoza Calendar”.
Even with all the technology and forecasting schemes available today, predictions usually have a degree of uncertainty that can change what is expected at a given moment.
January is usually a month of contrasts in terms of climate, so the effects of the “Niño” or “La Niña” phenomenon can cause a month of rains y coldas is happening in these first days of 2025. So, being nothing more than a belief, for many people, When it doesn’t rain in January it means that the cabañuelas have only been delayed to begin in the second month of the year.
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