During the year, the peso has suffered strong blows from the dollar, but it seems that another negative impact is still missing because, according to analysts, the US currency will be even more expensive by the end of the year.
The exchange rate projection for the end of 2024 increased from 20.00 to 20.23 pesos per dollar at wholesaleaccording to the results of the expectations survey carried out by Citi among 34 banks, brokerage houses and analysis groups.
Regarding the forecast at the end of 2025, the consensus estimate of specialists remained at 20.50 units, unchanged compared to the previous survey.
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The Mexican currency ended this Friday at 20.18 pesos per dollarwhich meant a weekly appreciation of 0.9% or 18 cents and accumulated two weeks of profits, according to the wholesale operations reported by Bloomberg.
The retail dollar ended this Friday at 20.68 pesos for sale at the windows of Banamex branches20 cents below the previous week’s close.
The appreciation of the peso is due to the fact that during the week the expectation that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points on December 18 was strengthened..
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The United States Department of Labor announced this Friday that 227 thousand jobs were created in November, after 36 thousand in October.
The result far exceeded the expectations of the market of 220 thousand seats and marked an important recovery of the market in the face of the effects of the Boeing strikes and hurricanes Milton and Helene.
This report adds elements for the Fed to cut its rate on December 18, Monex analysts said.
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The most appreciated currencies throughout the week were the Russian ruble, with 5.6%; the Israeli shekel, 1.3%; the Peruvian sol, 1.1%, and the Mexican peso, 0.9 percent.
On the other hand, the most depreciated currencies in the week were the Australian dollar, whose loss was 2%; the South Korean won, -1.8%; and the Brazilian real, -1.8 percent.
Analysts Banorte They expect the exchange rate to be between 20 and 20.55 pesos per dollar during the next week.
The week ended with gains among the main global stock indiceswith the exception of the Dow Jones, which fell 0.6% on the week. The gains are due to market optimism that the Fed will cut the rate.
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The Nasdaq Composite recorded a gain of 3.3% and was the largest since the second week of November, while the S&P 500 achieved an increase of 0.9% and linked three weeks of advances. Both stock market indicators reached new all-time highs for the week.
The main indicator of the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) closed yesterday with a gain of 3.1%breaking a three-week downward streak and being the biggest advance since the second week of July.
Banorte anticipates a weekly range for the BMV of 50,700 to 52,300 points.
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