Emmanuel Macron says he “does not believe” in the fall of Michel Barnier, while discreetly looking for a successor. But no solution guarantees stability. Discreetly, he questions his different circles, “tests widely”, including with “provocative findings”, according to one of his friends. Even if overall, the same names as last summer are coming back.
Sébastien Lecornu
The Minister of the Armed Forces had already been approached at the beginning of 2024, when Gabriel Attal arrived in Matignon. Part of Emmanuel Macron’s entourage is pushing this option, notably his shadow advisor Thierry Solère. “That’s really not the subject,” replied the minister on Tuesday in The Parisianevoking “the not always benevolent game” of those who circulate his name.
Appointing a loyal Macronist, in government since 2017, in any case does not correspond to the “scent of cohabitation” sought by presidential strategists after the defeat in the legislative elections. And Sébastien Lecornu would, a priori, be faced with the same difficulties in getting the budget adopted.
François Bayrou
The name of the Modem boss also comes up in each reshuffle — often promoted by the person himself. “Obviously François Bayrou is in this frame of mind,” underlines the leader of the deputies of the centrist party, Marc Fesneau.
This time, people close to the president’s historic ally think that the “alignment” of the stars is perhaps propitious, if Emmanuel Macron chooses a political heavyweight. Relaxed in February in the case of the Modem parliamentary assistants, he no longer has any legal obstacles in his way.
For his supporters, the centrist would not be the worst placed to convince at least some of the socialists not to immediately censor the future executive, while not being an irritant for the RN.
Bernard Cazeneuve
Three months ago, the president did not want to appoint the former Prime Minister, due to lack of guarantees from the PS. This time, the risk would be to lose the support of LR without having the assurance of gaining that of part of the left.
Bernard Cazeneuve does not have the support of the entire left either. “He supported neither Raphaël Glucksmann in the European elections nor the NFP in the legislative elections. He has never expressed himself on what he would like to do if he became head of government. It would be paradoxical to appoint someone in the name of a victory, that of the NFP, to which he did not want to contribute,” says the boss of the PS, Olivier Faure.
Lucie Castets
“There are only two choices left for the President of the Republic” in the event of censorship: “appoint Lucie Castets (…) or leave”. The sentence is signed Mathilde Panot, president of the LFI group in the National Assembly.
Lucie Castets, whose name had already been proposed by LFI following the early legislative elections, affirmed on Tuesday that she was “prepared to govern”. If the president “wishes to respect the spirit of the institutions”, he must “turn to the New Popular Front which obtained the best scores in the legislative elections and now has a relative majority”, she believes.
Our file on possible government censorship
François Villeroy de Galhau
The governor of the Bank of France is unknown to the general public. His appointment would mark the choice of a technical profile, that of a senior state official. She seems to be even less popular than in September with political leaders. “There is always politics behind the technique,” believes a Macronist leader.
Michel Barnier
No one in Macron imagines the head of state reappointing the former European commissioner. “Not only has he lost, but he is weakened,” whispers a parliamentary executive. A variant would be to choose another personality from the Les Républicains party, such as the president of Hauts-de-France Xavier Bertrand, who almost had the favor of the Elysée in September. But few people imagine him capable of providing more guarantees than Michel Barnier.
