Pillar of “barnierism”the Senate finishes this weekend the examination of the component ” recipes “ of the state budget for 2025, displaying a constructive but demanding attitude towards the government, which is holding its breath before a week when it could fall.
Last peaceful hours before the ax of censorship? More than ever threatened with being overthrown after a first 49.3 probably activated on Monday in the National Assembly, Michel Barnier continues to test his budget before the upper house.
Dominated by a right-centrist alliance which supports the government, the High Assembly must vote on Sunday on the whole party ” recipes “ of the budget, a vote without suspense.
She will then tackle the multiple thematic budgetary missions, promising clear cuts in spending, on State Medical Aid (AME) in favor of undocumented immigrants, teacher training, « Pass culture » or the Universal National Service…
After a week of debates scrutinized as rarely at the Palais du Luxembourg, the senators generally approved most of the government’s flagship measures, seeking 60 billion euros in savings to improve public finances at half mast and reduce the deficit to 5% of GDP in 2025, compared to 6.1% in 2024.
Temporary tax on very high incomes, exceptional contribution from large companies, increased automobile penalty, increased taxation on plane tickets and gas boilers… These measures passed the senatorial filter without any problem or almost.
Taxes and communities
On the increase in the electricity tax, supposed to bring in more than three billion euros, he even anticipated Michel Barnier’s announcement by opposing its increase beyond the level before the energy crisis .
Several new or reinforced taxes have nevertheless come to thwart the government’s plans, sometimes resulting from convenient alliances between the left and the center. Examples among others: the raising of « l’exit tax »of the « flat tax » and the tax on share buybacks.
And unsurprisingly, the one we call the Chamber of Territories made several gestures on Saturday towards local authorities, for a total of more than a billion euros. In particular, she unanimously opposed the reduction of the VAT Compensation Fund (FCTVA), a system to support communities in their investment spending.
But the quiet and courteous debates in the Senate cannot make the government forget its major concern: that of censorship.
The noose will seriously tighten on Monday, with the return to the National Assembly of the draft Social Security budget for 2025, a text full of irritants for the opposition (reductions in employer contributions, partial deindexation of pensions, medication reimbursement, etc.).
Ultimatum you RN
The probable use of a first « 49.3 » by Michel Barnier will pave the way for the first motion of censure of the fall, which could be examined on Wednesday.
If the left and the National Rally unite their voices, the government will fall. This would be the first time since the fall of Georges Pompidou’s government in 1962. And the threat from the RN is still alive.
“We are waiting to see the draft Social Security budget on Monday to draw the consequences. If the text has not evolved and the government decides on 49.3, we will vote for censure”launched RN deputy Jean-Philippe Tanguy in Les Échos on Saturday.
Indeed, even if the Social Security budget was the subject of an agreement between deputies and senators in the joint committee on Wednesday, the government can still modify its text until the last moment to meet the demands of the oppositions.
At this stage, the Prime Minister’s concessions – abandonment of the increase in the electricity tax beyond its pre-crisis level, promise of reform of the AME… – are not enough for Marine Le Pen.
This set an ultimatum for Michel Barnier, calling on him to index pensions to full inflation from January 1 and to commit to maintaining the reimbursement rate for medicines.
More than ever under pressure, the Minister of the Economy Antoine Armand called on Saturday “everyone has their responsibilities” to provide France with a budget “in the general interest”the day after France’s rating was maintained by the S&P agency.
