By announcing, a few hours apart, the departure of French soldiers from their soil, Senegal and Chad formalized a “reorganization” that Paris had been preparing for a long time. But the form is catastrophic and, once again, benefits Russian influence.
On Thursday, these two historic partners expressed their desire to see the French army not reduce its strength on their respective territories, but leave the area.
Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye told AFP that the “sovereignty” of his country “(could not accommodate) the presence of military bases”, demanding a “stripped partnership” French soldiers.
Shortly after, when the Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot had just left N’Djamena as part of an African tour, his Chadian counterpart Abderaman Koulamallah announced “end the defense cooperation agreement” signed with Paris.
A decision that took Paris by surprise. It was only Friday evening that France declared “take note” of the Chadian decision.
France “takes note” more “intends to continue the dialogue” with Chad, the Quai d’Orsay said.
After the forced departure in recent years of French soldiers from Mali, Burkina Faso and then Niger, where hostile juntas were established, Chad was the last Sahelian country to still host them.
These two declarations come as President Emmanuel Macron’s envoy to Africa, Jean-Marie Bockel, submitted his report on Monday on the reconfiguration of the French military system in Africa, advocating a partnership “renewed” et “co-constructed”.
“The French are burying their heads in the sand”
The report “recommended a drastic reduction in presence. This is not necessarily what was initially requested by the partners. But the decisions were moving in this direction, they preferred to announce that the decision was theirs”comments for AFP Elie Tenenbaum, of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri).
The Chadian authorities are not satisfied “because the recommendations (of Jean-Marie Bockel, editor’s note) do not take into account their expectations”judges Yamingué Bétinbaye, doctor in political geography at the University of N’Djamena.
“Once again, the Africans have advanced faster than the French”adds Elie Tenenbaum. In doing so, they offer Russia, in the midst of its surge in influence on the continent, a nice gift.
“Both Chad and Senegal have strengthened trade with Moscow in recent months. If Russia has no major interests in these countries, this is a good way for it to deal a blow to the French.”.
An analysis reminiscent of statements to AFP last week by Chadian opponent Succès Masra. “There are many openly pro-Russian people in the presidency. Wagner is already here »he assured, referring to the Russian mercenaries in Africa from the group of the late Yevgeni Prigojine, now grouped within the Africa Corps.
Chadian leaders “can free the French at any time, but everyone pretends it doesn’t exist. The French themselves are burying their heads in the sand”he estimated, noting that one month before the first legislative elections in the country since 2015, the announcement can help Mr. Deby to “reconquer popular opinion”.
“A slap”
In a supreme irony, the Elysée announced at the beginning of October that the French president and his Chadian counterpart, Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, had agreed to “strengthen cooperation” bilateral.
For Wolfram Lacher, of the German think tank SWP, “It’s a page that is turning” for the former colonial power “after years of military support and while France has repeatedly saved power” of the father of the Chadian leader, Idriss Déby.
“It’s a surprise (…), there was no need for Déby to take this step. He had a comfortable position with Paris”. And now he “will need other external support to ensure the security of his regime”although he could “avoid a relationship of dependence with Moscow” by diversifying its support.
The sequence refers to France’s inability to break the impasse and the opprobrium of African opinions, even since the end of the anti-jihadist operation Barkhane in the Sahel was announced in 2022 by Paris.
In January, the chief of staff of the armed forces Thierry Burkhard admitted that the “military device” French produced “particularly in the field of perceptions of negative effects which end up weighing more heavily than positive effects”.
And to add: “It is imperative that we take the trouble to let sovereign partner countries communicate on their actions”.
This is done for two more of them. “We can describe it as a slap in the face”believes Wolfram Lacher. “In 24 hours, Senegal and Chad… It shows the failure of French policy in Africa”.
cf-Dt-mra-dla-str/dab/blb
