Armed incidents have increased in recent days in the small state of Manipur, in the far northeast of India, the scene for a year and a half of a conflict involving the militias of two ethnic minorities and the forces of the ‘order.
This sudden increase in violence forced the Indian authorities to reestablish a curfew in the capital Imphal and to order the deployment of reinforcements of paramilitary troops.
At the origin of the conflict
Bordering Burma, the state of Manipur is home to the Kuki community, mainly Christian, which represents 16% of its approximately 3 million inhabitants, according to data from the last national census (2011). .
This essentially rural minority is recognized by the Indian Constitution as one of the “tribe” socio-economically disadvantaged people who benefit from quotas for public and university employment.
The Kuki are opposed to the demands of another ethnic community, that of the largely Hindu and urban Meitei, which demands to benefit from the same measures of positive discrimination.
The Meitei – half of the state’s population – constitute the bulk of those elected to the local legislative assembly, supported by the Bharatiya Janatha Party (BJP, Indian People’s Party) of Hindu ultranationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The spark
The charred remains of a house in the village of Kangchup, in the state of Manipur, northeastern India, plagued by violence and ethnic tensions, November 12, 2024 / – / AFP
The first incidents opposed students from the two communities in May 2023 after the decision of a local court to recognize the Meitei as «tribe»thus giving them access to lands held by the Kuki.
This decision was subsequently overturned by the Supreme Court but attacks, followed by reprisals, targeting the homes, businesses and temples of the two communities increased.
Extremely violent, the clashes caused around 200 deaths and numerous injuries on both sides, according to official estimates.
Thanks to the looting of police stations, Kuki and Metei have formed armed militias and erected strongholds in the areas they control, closed to the rival community.
Tens of thousands of people have been forced to leave their homes.
A quasi-civil war
After a few months of calm, violence was relaunched by a series of drone attacks or rocket attacks, attributed to the Kuki militias by the authorities, which left at least 11 dead.
Dead town day at the call of civil society in Imphal, capital of the state of Manipur, in the north-east of India which has been in the grip of a quasi-civil war since 2023, November 13, 2024 / – / AFP
To restore order, the authorities responded by declaring a curfew, suspending the internet and closing schools for several days.
But the cycle of violence resumed at the beginning of the month.
On November 11, shortly after the discovery of the charred body of a woman from an ethnic group close to the Kuki in the Jiribam district, militiamen from the community stormed a police station.
At least ten of the attackers were killed and one police officer injured, according to authorities.
A few days later, six people from the Meitei community were found dead in a seemingly retaliatory attack.
Local authorities on Saturday reinstated the curfew in Imphal, the state capital, and suspended the internet again after protests by the Meitei community demanding “mass operations” against the Kuki.
According to local media, the homes of several BJP elected officials were targeted during these incidents.
In this climate, the mission devolved to paramilitary reinforcements is coming « quasi-impossible »the daily The Hindu worried on Tuesday.
A very political context
Since 2023, human rights NGOs have accused local and national authorities of fanning the embers of the conflict for the benefit of the Meitei Hindu majority.
Interior Minister Amit Shah has repeatedly blamed Burmese refugees for the crisis.
In September, security sources reported the incursion, never confirmed, from Burma of hundreds of « militants » came to support the Kuki, who denounced the “propaganda”.
Noting the government’s inability to restore order, seven elected BJP representatives in the local assembly resigned from the ruling coalition in the state.
A decision considered by political analyst Samrat Choudhury as “the first sign of the beginnings of a resolution of the crisis”. Only one “political arrangement” will help put an end to the violence, The Hindu added.
Elected officials from the local opposition demanded that the state come under the direct control of the federal state, as in Indian Kashmir.