Even if Donald Trump’s inauguration will not take place until January 20, his name will be on everyone’s minds at the 29th UN climate conference which opens this Monday in Baku, Azerbaijan. The winner of the American presidential election is leaning towards getting the United States out of the flagship Paris agreement.
In fact, it will only take one signature for Donald Trump, upon his entry into the White House, to join Iran, Yemen and Libya outside the text adopted by countries around the world in 2015. This agreement is however the engine that has made it possible to reverse the trajectory of global warming over the past ten years to around 3°C or less by 2100.
Macron and Scholz absent
And if the Europeans swear that they will redouble their efforts to compensate for the American withdrawal, few will go to Baku. Neither Emmanuel Macron nor Olaf Scholz will participate in the summit of around a hundred leaders on Tuesday and Wednesday. “Everyone knows that these negotiations will not be simple,” said German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.
The Brazilian Lula, host of COP30 next year, is also absent. Colombian Gustavo Petro canceled due to flooding in his country, and the Dutch Prime Minister after violence against Israeli citizens in Amsterdam. But the Taliban sent a delegation.
Around 51,000 participants are accredited, according to the UN Climate, fewer than at COP28 in Dubai last year. A number of NGOs also criticize the holding of the conference in a country which celebrates oil, and where the authorities have arrested several environmental activists.
No consensus on the funds to be released
The Paris Agreement commits the world to limit warming to 2°C and to continue efforts to contain it to 1.5°C, compared to the end of the 19th century. The year 2024, torrential for many countries, will almost certainly be at this level.
Ugandan Adonia Ayebare, president of a negotiating bloc called G77 + China, which brings together developing countries, warns that the two-week negotiations will be difficult on the primary issue of this COP: how many billions in aid will rich countries be willing to get involved? Fifteen years ago, during the Copenhagen COP fiasco, developed countries saved the day by promising $100 billion in annual aid by 2020 for developing countries. This money, the vast majority of which is loans, makes it possible to build solar power plants, improve irrigation, build dikes or help farmers deal with droughts.
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The time has therefore come to increase this North-South aid. But it’s not going to be easy. The mood in rich countries is one of austerity (in Europe) or international disengagement (in the United States). Many are therefore calling for China and the Gulf countries to contribute more. But Beijing does not see it that way at all.
