A victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election could ruin relations with the EU on issues ranging from trade to aid to Ukraine.
ADVERTISINGWith voting underway Tuesday in the U.S. presidential election, there is concern in Europe that a victory for Donald Trump could mean problems for the European Union on issues ranging from security and aid to Ukraine to trade tariffs, according to analysts.
While it is considered likely that the Democratic candidate and vice president Kamala Harris maintain the status quo with the EU on these issues, former Republican President Trump has repeatedly criticized the bloc and has threatened to upend current ties between the EU and the United States.
How to fix Russia’s war in Ukraine in 24 hours
The toHelp Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 will be one of the most urgent topics of conversation between the EU and the next US president. Washington has given kyiv tens of billions of dollars in military and financial aid from 2022.
However, Republicans are increasingly divided over providing more money to Ukraine, while Trump has repeatedly criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and refused to back a kyiv victory, suggesting he could reduce American support if he won. the elections.
“One scenario is that Trump cuts off arms supplies to Ukraine“he told ‘Euronews’ Bart Szewczykanalyst at the German Marshall Fund, in an interview. Trump has also said he could end the conflict, if elected, before taking office in January, but without explaining how or giving details.
Arms to Ukraine? Yes, if Europe pays for them
Szewczyk said he could seek an agreement with the Russian president, Vladimir Putinto achieve a ceasefire and end the war “above the Ukrainians and the Europeans.”
Most likely, the Trump administration will continue to supply weapons to kyiv, but ask Europe to foot the bill. Otherwise, he warned, there is likely to be “a chaos, a hodgepodge of attempts at a peace agreement, continuous supplies of weapons, stops and starts without rhyme or reason”.
NATO? Yes, if all its members pay
Trump has long defended the US isolationisma position that has gained popularity in the Republican Party in recent years. At a campaign rally in February, he said he would not defend NATO members from an attack by Russia if they did not meet their defense spending obligations.
The United States is frustrated that many of NATO’s 31 members are failing to meet an annual defense spending target of at least 2% of GDP. The military alliance estimates that 23 members will meet the goal this year, compared to just three nations a decade ago.
The US presence in Europe could decrease
Washington currently pays about 16.2% of main NATO budgetsthe same part that Berlin contributes. “The idea is that Europe must really prepare a world in which the United States no longer plays the role it has today,” he told ‘Euronews‘ Serge Jaumainprofessor at the Free University of Brussels (ULB).
This could be the case under a Trump or Harris administration, Jaumain says, noting that the era in which the US was “extremely present at the European level” was over.
Protectionist slam of the door for EU exports?
Another cause for concern in Europe is the threat that Trump will pursue a protectionist policy and hit other countries with trade tariffs. He has promised to impose tariffs of 10% on imports from all nations and 60% on those from China.
The US is the EU’s main trading partner. Trade in goods between both partners has more than doubled in the last decade, totaling almost 870 billion euros in 2022, according to the latest data from the bloc. The EU’s main exports to the US are medicines y vehicleswhile natural gas, petroleum oils and crude oil are the EU’s largest imports from the US.
Trump’s direct threat to European trade
However, Trump has been critical of the EU and has warned that “I would pay a very high price” for not buying enough American products if he won the elections.
“In terms of business relationships, the idea is protect USA everywhere“said Jaumain. “These measures (the proposed tariffs) are also possibly retaliation against Europe.” However, given the unpredictability of the Republican candidate, these campaign promises should be viewed with due skepticism, in an all or nothing election.
Additional sources • Enrique Barrueco (Voice-over)
