As tradition dictates, This first Tuesday in November, the citizens of the United States will elect their next president.
According to the media DW, in these elections they can vote approximately about 244 million people, who must choose between the candidates Kamala Harris, of the Democratic Party, and Donald Trump, of the Republican Party.
In this sense, a day earlier, almost 60 million voters had already cast their early votes. Due to the large number of interested parties, it is estimated that it will be a very close election with considerable citizen participation.
According to Artificial Intelligence, the chances of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump winning the presidential elections in the United States depend on several political, social and economic factors that are constantly evolving.
Kamala Harris (Vice President of the United States of America)
Factors in your favor:
- Connection with the Democratic electorate: Harris has a solid base within the Democratic Party, especially among communities of color, women and youth, although she has also been seen with some polarization within her own party due to her leadership style.
- Advantages as an incumbent: As vice president, she would have the advantage of being known at the national level, with access to resources and institutional support from the government, which can be crucial for a successful campaign.
- Progressive positioning: Harris has defended progressive policies such as police reform, protecting abortion rights and fighting climate change, which could attract more liberal voters.
Challenges for your candidacy:
- Internal division in the Democratic Party: Although he has loyal followers, Harris has faced criticism for her performance as vice president and for some of her political stances.which could hinder his ability to mobilize the entire Democratic electorate.
- Personal and leadership challenges: Harris has been criticized for her leadership style in the Senate and his ability to make important executive decisions. This could raise questions about his ability to lead the country against a rival like Trump.
Read: Elon Musk will wait with Trump for the results of the elections in Florida
Donald Trump (former president, Republican)
Factors in your favor:
- Loyal base and voter mobilization: Trump maintains a very loyal and mobilized base. Despite the controversies and legal problems it has faced, it remains a dominant figure within the Republican Party, with strong support among white working-class and conservative voters.
- “Anti-establishment” narrative: Trump has managed to position himself as the leader who challenges the “system”, which continues to resonate with many voters disenchanted with traditional politicians and established institutions.
- Discontent with the Democratic Party: If the Biden administration continues to face economic or social challenges, this could lead to a rise in widespread discontent, which would favor Trump as a change option. In addition, the Republican Party has a strong presence in Congress and could be key in his campaign.
Challenges for your candidacy:
- Legal problems: Trump faces multiple investigations and trials, that could weaken his image and his ability to present himself as a “clean” candidate to the electorate. Although his base supports him, these issues could influence independent or moderate voters.
- Polarization: While Trump is very popular with his base, he is highly polarizing. Many moderate and left-wing voters reject him outright, which makes it difficult for him to win without a solid strategy to expand his support.
- Fractures within the Republican Party: Although Trump has great influence, there are sectors within the Republican Party that would prefer new leadership, which could fragment the republican vote if internal divisions occur.
Donald Trump could have an advantage in terms of support within his Republican base. However, his ability to win a second term It largely depends on whether he can expand his voter base outside his usual circle.
For her part, Kamala Harris has the advantage of being supported by the Democratic Party apparatus, but Her chances will depend largely on whether she can overcome criticism of her tenure as vice president and generate enthusiasm among the progressive electorate.
We recommend: Harris and Trump tie even in the key states
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