Religion and politics in the United States: how do believers vote?

In the United States, religion remains a determining factor in elections. With 53% of the population considering religion as “very important” in their lives, the country remains the most religious in the Western world. At the dawn of the presidential election which will determine who, between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, will be the next president of the United States, how does religious belief influence the way we vote?

The Christian population, a key factor in the election

Various studies show that the religious factor influences the electoral behavior of believers. According to the Pew Research Center, 62% of voters attending religious services at least once a month – regardless of religion – vote for the Republican Party.

For the Christian electoratewe can draw a first lesson from this: he votes more than the rest of the population, with only 17% absentee, compared to 30% overall according to the Baker Institute.

The most important block, the one formed the protestantsall denominations combined, is the most aligned with the Republican Party: the GOP receives 59% of voting intentions for the 2024 presidential election, according to the Pew Research Center (compared to 38% for the Democrats).

In detail, the most homogeneous group is that of “white evangelicals”, with 85% voting intentions for Donald Trump. In 2020, 63% of this electorate considered abortion to be the priority issue, compared to 36% in 2024. This year, it is immigration which seems to emerge as the determining element at 65%, compared to 36% in 2020. In this Protestant electorate, the African-American community stands out, supporting Kamala Harris at 86%. As for white Protestants from “mainline” churches (traditional, excluding evangelicals), they would vote 58% for Donald Trump against 41% for Kamala Harris, according to Pew.

The Catholics (20% of the population), for their part, are more evenly divided between Democrats (44% of voting intentions) and Republicans (52%). Although they historically voted more Democratic, over the last two decades we have nevertheless observed a constant movement to the right, both among white Catholic voters (now 61% for Donald Trump compared to 55% in 2004 for George W. Bush), and among Hispanics (35% today compared to 28% in 2004). This electorate now tends to align with the overall vote of Americans.

Other minority religions in the deciding vote

The Jews (2% of the American population) traditionally vote more to the left in the United States: this year, 63% of the Jewish vote would go to Kamala Harris. Orthodox communities, which are growing rapidly due to a high birth rate, vote largely for Donald Trump but today represent only 29% of this electorate. However, their mass migration to Florida has helped make it a decidedly right-leaning state, which was not the case in 2020.

Few in number, the Muslim electorate (1% of the population) could however prove decisive. Indeed, Muslims in Michigan – nearly 250,000 people – from the Lebanese and Palestinian diasporas, are reportedly massively leaving the Democratic Party due to the management of the conflict in the Middle East by Joe Biden’s administration, perceived as too close of Israel in the war in Gaza. About 40% of them plan to vote for Jill Stein of the Green Party, compared to 18% for Donald Trump and only 12% for Kamala Harris. Michigan is a swing statethat is to say a contested state which will determine the election, where Joe Biden won by only 15,000 votes in 2020.

However, the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) shows that the main concern of voters, even the most religious, is the price of everyday life and housing. Another survey from National Catholic Reporter on the Catholic electorate in the swing states shows that the economy is the main concern of these populations, far ahead of abortion, in eighth place on the list of priorities.

Since the beginning of the 2010s, the American religious landscape has also been marked by the increase in “nones” (22% of the population), these Americans who do not claim to belong to any religion, particularly numerous among young people. This group tends to vote on the left of the political spectrum (62% of voting intentions for the 2024 presidential election).