This Tuesday will be the election for the Presidency of the United States (EU) for the period 2025-2029. And Pennsylvania and Michigan are the states that will be key to giving victory to Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. Polls have established a very close contest in terms of the preferences of the Republican and the Democrat, who replaced Joe Biden after he resigned from the electoral process last July.
Rodrigo Aguilar Benignos, international analyst and member of the United States Council on Foreign Relations, indicates that, first of all, “Pennsylvania will be the mother of all battles” because it is a “pendulum” State; That is, it does not have a sustained voting trend, but rather fluctuates between one party and another.
Pennsylvania is joined by Michigan with similar geographic, demographic and economic conditions. “There is a fairly significant rural and semi-rural area. Along with Wisconsin, here Trump and Biden played the election, which is also why the current elections of their vice presidents, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, are people from that area, because they already saw this trend coming in these States. ”.
Other important areas are Nevada and Arizona, where Trump’s proposal to free tips from taxes has permeated, which benefits them in terms of the service sector they carry out, but where they also have greater concern regarding the immigration issue, considering that the Statistics show that one in four voters is Hispanic.
“They are pendulum zones. On the one hand, there is a good portion that is very conservative, people who are related to Republicans, with issues such as the right to bear arms, religious freedom, pro-life issues and economic freedom, which are very attractive to those demographics. But, on the other hand, there are a series of voters who sympathize with issues such as reproductive rights, the economic issue and the immigration issue.”
Francisco Santana, member of the Academy of International Relations of the Universidad Panamericana, indicates that Pennsylvania is a key factor in the election because it itself represents 19 votes of those required in the Electoral College, which makes it one of the States with greater weight. To win the Presidency, a candidate needs at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes.
As dictated by electoral statistics, Pennsylvania has been the winning vote in eight of the last 10 US elections. “Pennsylvania is not like California, which always votes Democratic, or Texas, which always votes Republican. It is one of the pendulum States: although it had traditionally been Democratic, they voted for Trump in 2016 and later for Biden in 2020. That is why it is a State where both candidates have focused the most, especially Trump.”
To the South, Arizona and Georgia will also be key, where the immigration issue has great weight. In general, the key states are Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, Illinois and Georgia, adds Eduardo González Velázquez, researcher and political scientist at the Tecnológico de Monterrey, Guadalajara campus. “In some elections they vote for Democrats and in others they vote for Republicans. They are not openly defined States.”
More than 240 million people are eligible to vote, a figure that reflects the magnitude of the American democratic system.
How do you vote?
1.- Popular vote
- The citizens of each State vote directly for their candidate. This is the well-known direct popular vote.
- However, it does not directly decide the winner.
- Instead, representatives of the Electoral College are the ones who determine who triumphs in the election.
2.- Electoral College
- Each State has a number of electoral votes that are proportional to its population (for example, California has 55 votes in the Electoral College).
- This Electoral College is made up of representatives from each State, who cast the electoral votes.
- In total, there are 538 electoral votes. And the winner of the Presidency needs at least 270 of these votes.
- In the event that none of them reach 270 electors, the House of Representatives breaks the tie.
- The winner takes office as president on January 20.
3.- Why is the Electoral College used?
- The intention is to give weight to the States and balance power between areas with different population sizes.
Close race between Trump and Harris, prior to the elections
The latest polls released yesterday show a close race between the Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, and her Republican opponent, Donald Trump.
A new NBC News poll finds that the vice president and the former president are virtually tied nationally among registered voters.
In polls that include senators and legislators from the lower house, 47% support Trump and 46% support Harris, while in polls that only take into account the two presidential candidates, they are tied with a 49% each.
However, the latest ABC News/Ipsos national poll shows that Vice President Harris has a narrow lead over the Republican mogul, with 49% to 46% supporting Trump.
With the new poll results incorporated, the latest CNN Poll of Polls average of national polls reveals that 48% of voters nationwide support Harris and 47% support Trump, unchanged from the previous average .
In the seven states most likely to decide this year’s presidential election, known as “hinge” states, neither Harris nor Trump have a clear lead, as they are tied in most of them, according to final New York Times polls. /Siena College.
If the results of the head-to-head elections that take into account third-party candidates are analyzed, the polls indicate that Harris and Trump are tied in Georgia (46% each), Michigan (45% each) and Pennsylvania (47% % each) among the possible voters of those States, which together are worth 50 electoral votes in tomorrow’s elections.
Harris is 48% to Trump’s 45% in both Wisconsin and North Carolina, and 48% to Trump’s 46% in Nevada, gaps that are within each poll’s margin of error that suggest there is no clear leader.
EFE
THE INFORMER
Closing of campaigns is aimed at determining States for victory
The Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, and his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, continued yesterday to wage a marathon battle for a handful of decisive states, two days before the presidential elections, with polls that present a scenario very tight.
Trump focused on sowing doubts about the voting system in some key states, something that could lead, as in 2020, to a new questioning of the results, while Harris said that in the coming days “they are going to test us.” .
This close fight means that both political rivals have focused these final days on the seven pivotal states: Pennsylvania, the one that contributes the most electoral votes (19); North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6).
EFE
THE INFORMER
CT
