Michel Barnier brings together his ministers in a seminar on Monday morning with the aim of bringing out by the end of the year proposals to be implemented over three years, thus allowing him to project himself beyond the current budgetary marathon which is testing harshly on his coalition.
” To work “ was the watchword of the ministers upon arriving in Matignon shortly before 9:00 a.m.
Busy since his appointment two months ago with the urgency of preparing the 2025 budget, the Prime Minister, who arrived an hour before, wants to show that he is there for the long term. And this, without worrying about the sword of Damocles of voting for a motion of censure in December when he will probably engage the responsibility of his government to have these perilous finance bills definitively adopted.
“5-year vision, 3-year action”this is the new leitmotif at Matignon, in reference to 2029, the date set for France’s return to European budgetary standards, and 2027, the next presidential election.
After a first seminar in September to prepare his general policy declaration, Michel Barnier wants through this second “collective meeting”then a third in December, leading to “concrete proposals on the priorities of the French” which will be presented in an action plan, according to those around him.
On the menu for forty ministers on Monday, five themes: State/communities, work/social benefits (“encouraging work”), immigration/integration (“supervising immigration to better integrate”), overseas and simplification.
A lead minister will manage each theme and the objective will be to define “one or two priority measures” to be implemented, according to Matignon.
Posing session during the government seminar on November 4, 2024 at the Hôtel de Matignon in Paris / Thomas SAMSON / POOL/AFP
Two ministers will make interventions on the current context: Minister Delegate for European Affairs Benjamin Haddad was to begin on “European issues” followed by the Minister of the Economy Antoine Armand who will report on the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.
The seminar will conclude with a lunch “with the aim of cohesion” while the coalition between the right and the central bloc is illustrated by its disagreements on a number of subjects, including immigration.
This lack of unity is seen almost daily in the Assembly on budgetary texts that are little defended or even contested by part of the majority.
The government has been defeated on numerous occasions on tax issues, the latest example being the overhaul of employer contributions rejected Thursday by the Macronists, the right and the National Rally.
“not in a row”
“There is a need that, in the pack that was formed around Michel Barnier, we try to define what we agree on so that it sparks a form of mobilization”recognized Sunday on France Inter the leader of the Modem deputies Marc Fesneau by calling on the government to “take into account parliamentary debates”for example the perpetuation of the surtax on high incomes voted by the left and the Modem.
“It is not because we have an opinion that we are an opponent, it is not because we are not completely aligned in a row that we are an opponent”he put it into perspective.
The deputies will resume on Monday the examination of the revenue part of the Social Security budget with the result of a probable rejection, which would amount to refusal of the entire text.
The expenditure aspect would then not be examined, which would spare the government a lost discussion on the postponement to July 1 of the indexation of pensions, reviled on all sides.
The deputies will then get back to discussions on the revenue part of the state budget while there remain some 1,500 amendments to debate.
A rejection is expected, as in committee, the majority not supporting the billions in additional revenue voted by the deputies of the New Popular Front.
Here too, a red light would carry the entire text which would go to the Senate in its original version, before a joint committee so that the two chambers try to agree on a common version.
At the end of the process, the government should not, however, be able to escape a 49.3 to have its two budgetary texts adopted, the left and the RN having already announced their intention to vote against.