“He doesn’t lose much by going further and further”: how Donald Trump “stirs up fear” of others before the American presidential election

The text is displayed in huge letters, above a silhouette of a hooded man armed with a long knife, walking behind a woman: “No one is safe with Kamala’s open borders”. This gloomy and xenophobic image, which associates immigration and sexual violence, is one of the many advertisements projected on the giant screens of a Donald Trump meeting, in Detroit (Michigan), at the end of October. In the last weeks of the campaign for the presidential election, the Republican candidate continued to hammer home this same message in every speech, until his big rally at Madison Square Garden (New York), Sunday October 27: Illegal immigration is a threat to the United States, and Democrats are responsible.

This is a strategy well established by Donald Trump. “He plays on fear (of part of the population) faced with a changing America, this was already the case in 2016″recalls Clifford Young, director of polls for the Ipsos institute in the United States. For the specialized site Politico and the ABC News channel, the Republican’s rhetoric is nevertheless “darker and darker” in the run-up to the November 5 vote. At each campaign event, the billionaire never stops of “demonize minorities”denounces Politico.

Already during his meeting in Detroit, Donald Trump had promised “the largest deportation program in history” targeting undocumented immigrants, projected graphics illustrating the influx of illegal immigrants at the border with Mexico and mentioned Venezuelan gangs “taking by storm” buildings in a Colorado town – a claim denied by local police, according to public radio NPR. At regular intervals, he interrupted his speech to broadcast videos using the same codes: a succession of extracts from news reports evoking violence involving foreigners, truncated statements from Kamala Harris, anxiety-provoking soundtrack. “I demand the death penalty for any migrant who murders an American citizen or member of law enforcement”even said the ex-president, triggering an ovation.

Donald Trump’s tactic is to “take up a subject on which there is consensus”like the migration crisis on the border with Mexico, “then push it to the extreme”deciphers Douglas Heye, expert in political strategy and former Republican official. Even if it means relaying false racist information to “stoking fears”. During the debate with Kamala Harris, he claimed that Haitian migrants were eating dogs and cats in Springfield, Ohio. The rumor, denied several times by local authorities, led to dozens of bomb threats targeting this community. “Donald Trump knows that his party has an advantage on the issue of immigration, if we rely on the polls, and that he will not lose much by going further and further”notes Douglas Heye.

“It’s a way of mobilizing your base, but also of trying to reach other electorates, because victory will depend on participation.”

Clifford Young, director of polling for Ipsos in the United States

at franceinfo

This strategy can indeed motivate some voters to go to the polls, according to Nadia E. Brown, professor of public policy and chair of the gender studies department at Georgetown University. “Research on the impact of emotions in politics shows that fear is a driver of voting among white women, and anger among white men”she explains. The influence is less great among other categories of voters. “Concern plays less on the vote of black voters, who are more motivated by the feeling of hope or of being listened to.”

In this very tight campaign, the billionaire is targeting Americans who feel left behind, particularly the white electorate. “It represents a part of the population anxious to see the country evolve towards more cultural and racial diversity”constate Clifford Young.

“Donald Trump is trying to pit each community against the others, increasing voters’ concerns about their position in society.”

Nadia E. Brown, professor of public policy

at franceinfo

The Republican also tries “d’attract young male votersa key group whose vote is very difficult to predict”, notes Douglas Heye. Faced with the demands of feminists, “He tells men under 30: ‘You are attacked for who you are’.” As reported by the Associated Press, Donald Trump is banking on hypermasculinity and a traditionalist vision of gender.

Another community has been systematically targeted in its meetings in recent weeks: transgender people. In Detroit, Donald Trump broadcast a clip alternating excerpts from the film Full Metal Jacketwhere young soldiers are manhandled by their instructors, and videos of performances by drag artists – here confused, knowingly or not, with transidentity. The whole thing purports to illustrate the difference between “the army before” et “the army under Kamala Harris”. In Detroit, the video was the one that provoked the most reactions in the room, ahead of immigration in applause.

Donald Trump does not reserve his transphobic attacks for meetings. His team spent more than $19 million on campaign spots targeting trans people, according to a study relayed by CBS in mid-October. In total, the Republican Party purchased $65 million worth of television ads on this subject, to influence the presidential or local elections in a dozen states, adds the New York Times.

The subject finds a certain resonance in the Republican electorate. “I was surprised how much I heard about transgender people outside of Washington.”assures Douglas Heye. To the conservatives, the Trumpist camp presents the progress of LGBT+ rights “as proof that the Democratic Party has become too liberal”continues the analyst.

“As transgender rights generate very strong reactions among some voters, Republicans believe the issue can mobilize them.”

Douglas Heye, Republican strategist

at franceinfo

The effectiveness of these campaign spots remains to be proven. “This strategy may have an impact on local elections in some conservative states like Kansas, Texas or Florida, where demonizing trans people can help mobilize voters, analyse Nadia E. Brown. But at the national level, it has less effect: Americans will not vote for Donald Trump for this reason alone.”

For Clifford Young, these transphobic and xenophobic attacks are part of “in a constellation of central themes for the Republican base, which serve to galvanize voters” as the election approaches. “Donald Trump uses these topics to support the idea that the system is broken, that we must ‘take back the country'”continues the head of Ipsos in the United States.

However, the billionaire is not the only one to “play on fears” of his fellow citizens, says Douglas Heye. “Kamala Harris does the same thing with the question of abortion or banning books from schools in conservative states“to mobilize women and progressives, judges the Republican strategist, himself a critic of the ex-president. “Each side uses American fears, but not in the same way,” confirme Clifford Young.

“Among Democrats, the number one argument to push voters to vote is the threat that Donald Trump represents for democracy.”

Clifford Young, director of polling for Ipsos in the United States

at franceinfo

Nadia E. Brown disagrees. According to political scientist Kamala Harris “Above all, reminds Americans of what Donald Trump did.” An indictment that the vice-president delivered on Tuesday, October 29, during an XXL meeting in Washington, in the exact place where the Republican had fueled the anger of his supporters before the assault on the Capitol. “For some Americans, particularly those who support reproductive rights, (what balance) is indeed a source of concern.insists Nadia E. Brown.

A few days before the election, the question remains whether this will be enough to push voters to go to the polls. Nothing is less certain, according to Douglas Heye. “By betting everything on the threat to democracy, Kamala Harris is speaking to her base, judges the Republican strategist. Donald Trump may give a lugubrious and sometimes confused speech, but he talks about what Americans are talking about most in this campaign: immigration and the economy.