Exhausted by almost three years of Russian invasion, Ukraine is anxiously awaiting Tuesday’s American presidential election, with some fearing a « catastrophe » in the event of Donald Trump’s victory, while hoping that the United States will not abandon its ally at a critical moment.
A few days before the election, the Ukrainian army, lacking men and ammunition, is retreating on the ground, while Russia is reportedly on the verge of receiving reinforcements from North Korean troops. The West is showing reluctance when it comes to their aid to Ukraine, blocking in particular the use of their missiles on Russian territory. And Donald Trump has given no sign of wanting to give kyiv the means to defeat Russia.
Therefore, “A Trump victory would create serious risks. The situation will be worrying”summarizes to AFP Oleg Chamshur, a former Ukrainian ambassador to the United States. Washington and, under its leadership, NATO members, have provided crucial military and financial aid worth tens of billions of dollars since the start of the war in 2022, allowing kyiv to continue fighting against a much larger enemy. powerful. But for months, in Europe as in the United States, procrastination has been increasing.
Ukraine’s great fear is to see the Republican billionaire abandon it, especially since he has already criticized American assistance and claimed to be able to resolve the war “in 24 hours”. Trump and his team “do not believe in Ukraine’s victory” and want “end at all costs” to the conflict in order to be able to concentrate on a confrontation with China, believes Oleg Chamshur.
Ukraine will have to give up joining NATO, according to Trump’s plan
Donald Trump has never given details of his intentions, but he has never publicly wished for « victoire » from kyiv. And he is accused of having admiration for Vladimir Putin. According to Western media, his plan would be largely favorable to Russia. The aim was to demilitarize the zone currently occupied by Moscow (i.e. 20% of Ukrainian territory) without kyiv regaining control. And Ukraine will have to give up joining NATO, as the Kremlin wants.
For Oleg Chamshur, such a project would be “catastrophic” because Russia will then be able to rebuild its army and reattack later to “destroy Ukraine completely”. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already ruled out any territorial concessions. “Ukraine will not recognize these territories (as Russian) no matter what, whoever wins (the presidential election) in the United States”he insisted. But he recognizes that if Washington reduces its support, Moscow could “occupy more” of territories.
A senior official from the Ukrainian presidency nevertheless tried to be reassuring in a conversation with AFP, judging “very good” the Zelensky-Trump meeting which took place in September in the United States. « Trump will surely not want to be the man with whom America lost to Putin”he analyzed, on condition of anonymity, assuring that Ukraine ” work “ to have a good relationship with the winner of the vote, whether it is Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.
« Catastrophe »
The US elections come at a critical time for kyiv. In October, the Russian army advanced by almost 500 km2 in Ukraine, the largest territorial gain in a month since March 2022 and the first weeks of the conflict. In the Donetsk region, where two-thirds of these conquests were made, a Ukrainian sergeant Serguiï, 51, tries to be pragmatic.
“I don’t care who wins. The main thing is that the United States continues to help us”he told AFP, while admitting that a victory for the Republican “could be a disaster”. Especially since Ukraine has already tasted Republican reluctance. For months in late 2023-early 2024, Mr. Trump’s supporters blocked U.S. military assistance, forcing Ukrainian forces to ration shells and allowing Russia to push its advantage.
Bogdan, a young soldier fighting in the same region, wants to hope that Mr. Trump “will want (…) to show once again the strength and resolution of America” and that American military aid will increase to help kyiv defeat Russia, Washington’s strategic adversary. Rodion, another soldier interviewed in Kharkiv, a large city in the northeast, is also confident: “I know they won’t betray us. » The soldier swears to fight whatever happens “until the end, until our victory”.