OTTAWA | Whatever the outcome of the presidential election next Tuesday, we anticipate chaos.
First in the United States, which will be torn by whether or not Donald Trump respects the results for weeks, if not months.
And if Trump wins, the mess will spread beyond American borders, including Canada. We will not escape it.
Kamala Harris also promised to make life difficult for us in terms of trade.
Are we ready?
Serene?
The one who spent the last year crisscrossing the United States with the aim of convincing the Americans to leave us alone remains “serene” in view of next week.
“We are following this with a lot of interest, but also with a lot of serenity,” says Minister François-Philippe Champagne in an interview.
I must admit that the qualifier is surprising, especially when we compare it to François Legault, who said he was deeply worried about the outcome of the American presidential election.
Minister Champagne has no real choice but to be optimistic.
As the iceberg approached, the captain of the Titanic also looked serene…
Tightly knitted
In Ottawa, we believe we are capable of weathering the storm, whatever the result, and even if Trump promises to be more radical than ever, he who promises to impose tariffs of 10% on all American imports.
“We are better positioned than in the past,” believes Minister Champagne.
Basically, because of wars, COVID and tensions with China, the Canadian and American economies are knitted even tighter than before, according to him.
Whether for critical minerals, electronic chips or electric cars, Canada and the United States are closely linked. It’s not easy to harm one without harming the other.
The fact remains that Canada and Quebec are dependent like a cub on its mother on the American market. While the opposite is far from being as true.
Defense
The same logic applies to defense. Trump is tired of paying to protect the countries of the free world, and that includes Canada.
In fact, Democrats are also increasing pressure for Ottawa to spend more on defense.
“For our American partners, the security issue is essential,” maintains Mr. Champagne. We need to reassure them.”
To calm things down, the Liberals announced this summer that Canada will reach the famous target of 2% of our GDP in military spending by 2032.
To achieve this, we would have to roughly double our spending. Are we really ready to pour $80 billion into our army?
Canada risks having its ears pulled for a long time by whoever is tenant of the White House.
Border
There are issues in which Ottawa’s responses are more evasive, such as the border.
The first Trump presidency pushed hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers towards Roxham Road because of his migration policies.
What would happen if he followed through on his promise to deport millions of people?
“We are not at the time for speculation, we are going to take it step by step,” replies François-Philippe Champagne. What people need to know is that we are ready.”
Will Justin Trudeau once again send a message of openness to anyone seeking refuge on social media, like back then?
It would be surprising if that was part of the plan this time…
