What is Russia planning in its hybrid war against Moldova?

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Although Moldovans who went to the polls on Sunday narrowly opted for their country’s future in the EU, the Kremlin (which has long aspired to place the eastern European country under its sphere of influence) has hardly flinched.

In any case, the Moldovan authorities have been adamant in their assertions that Russia and pro-Russian forces have made multiple attempts to influence the results of the vote and, consequently, destabilize it.

The director of Moldova’s Intelligence and Security Service reported last week that Moldovan authorities had discovered that foreign instructors affiliated with the Grupo Wagner had trained to a group of about 100 young pro-Russian Moldovans in “guerrilla camps” in Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

“The training program included, among other things, tactics to challenge law enforcementthe use of weapons and objects to cause non-lethal injuries,” declared Alexandru Musteata at a press conference last Thursday.

They also received training in “manufacture and use of artifacts incendiaries and improved explosive devices, and handling of drones with special explosive or incendiary attachments,” he added.

The American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also reported that, according to the Moldovan Police, more than 300 moldovans they learned protest tactics at a training camp near Moscow and that the non-profit organization Eurasiaby pro-Kremlin politician Ilan Shor, financed the training.

The countdown to the second presidential round could be clouded by Russian interference

Kremlin authorities could plan light the fuse of the protests in the next ten days, before the second round of the presidential elections on November 3, according to ‘ISW’.

On Sunday, the referendum about the accession to the UEin which the pro-European option was imposed by a narrower margin than expected by its main supporters, and the first round of the presidential electionsin which the current president was ahead of the pro-Russian candidate with whom she will compete in the second round.

Christina Harward, Russia researcher at the ISW, told ‘Euronews’ that Russia intend keep trying to destabilize Moldovan society. “We saw indicators that Russia was trying to launch protests in Moldova, and turn those protests in violent. Moscow may continue trying to use its proxies to foment violent protests in Moldova in the coming weeks“Harward said.

“It is very likely that the Kremlin will use affinity groups in Moldova over the next two weeks to try influence the second round of the elections. “Moscow will not easily accept the results of the referendum either, and the Kremlin has already begun to claim that the vote was not free and fair,” he explained.

Officials of the Kremlin They have already claimed that the Moldovan authorities falsified the results of the elections and the referendum. The spokesperson for the Ministry of Russian Foreign AffairsMaria Zakharova, stated that the Moldovan authorities used “totalitarian” methods during the electoral campaign and that the number of votes in favor of the referendum began to increase “inexplicably” during the last phases of the count.

Zakharova also stated that the West is trying to turn Moldova into a “NATO Russophobic Addendum deprived of sovereignty.” Harward of the ISW says that for Moscow this is all normal. “We are also already seeing many Russian specialist bloggers (including some directly affiliated with the Kremlin) making similar accusations.”

“Overall, the results of the elections and the referendum will not deter Moscow from continuing to pursue its goal of regaining influence over Moldova. We can expect that the Kremlin keep trying to prevent accession from Moldova to the EU in the next years“.

Why would Russia interfere in Moldova?

In Moscow, Moldova is considered part of the definition of Vladimir Putin of the “Russian world” or “Russkiy Mir”, a notion often used by Putin to justify Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Putin claims that it includes the territories of the former Rus or Kyivan Rus, the former Russian Empire and the former Soviet Union. An international media consortium, including ‘The Kyiv Independent’, published an investigation last year outlining the Kremlin plans to gain a vast control over Moldova in 2030.

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According to the leaked documents, Russia’s main objectives were to ensure that Moldovan policymakers and society in general had a negative attitude towards NATO and that the country would have a strong presence of pro-Russian influence groups in politics and economics.

Most of the short term goals that Russia aimed to achieve by 2022 were derailed by Moscow’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, which brought Moldova closer to the European Union.

In particular, the leaked document provided for Transnistria as a separatist region with Russian troops stationed there. Since 1992, Moscow keeps some 1,500 soldiers in the pro-Russian separatist zone of Transnistria.

Transnistria was a key element of Russia’s campaign, including its attempts to appeal to voters, Harward explained. “Transnistria was clave for Moscow’s recent efforts to circumvent Western sanctions on Russian financial institutions and bring in Russian money in Moldova“he explained.

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“The Kremlin representatives in Moldova were bribing to Moldovan voters with Russian money, but Moldovans could only receive the money in cash through a complex series of bank transfers, including through banks in Transnistria.

How can Russia destabilize Moldova now?

ISW experts consider that Moldavia en 2024 es similar to Ukraine between 2014 and February 2022and the Kremlin has implemented elements of its playbook hybrid war in both States.

Therefore, the Moldovan presidential elections and the EU accession referendum are vital importance for the efforts of Kremlin for maintaining his influence about the country.

Specifically, the ISW believes that, in the long term, Moscow may try to influence the parliamentary elections in the summer of next year to elect favorable politicians a Russia that could derail Moldova’s accession to the EU.

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In addition, Moscow can analyze and use the information it obtains from the October 2024 vote to prepare better to their candidates. Russia can also exploit its military and security ties con Transnistria to influence future negotiations or even to invade and occupy all of Moldova.

The ISW states that the threat of invasion es currently extremely lowas Moscow would have to redeploy a significant number of forces, which is highly unlikely, with Russia’s main focus currently on Ukraine.

“A military conflict is extremely unlikely in a near future. Russia does not have the forces or material it would need to threaten Moldova militarily at this time. but these conditions may change in the future; “It all depends on the battlefield situation in Ukraine,” concluded Harward.