Deputies and government settle accounts: Monday begins in the hemicycle the examination of the party ” recipes “ of a 2025 state budget with 60 billion savings, and whose flagship measures will come up against a wall of opposition, even certain supporters of Michel Barnier.
The start of the debates at 9:30 p.m. will launch in earnest the most important weeks of the very young Barnier government, with in its shadow the ever-present possibility of censorship at the hands of the RN, and for all support a relative majority LR -macronie with fragile foundations.
Barely forty-eight hours after its rejection in the Finance Committee, the text returned to its initial version, as usual for budgetary texts. A blessing in disguise for the government, which saw its copy largely rewritten in committee, suggesting hours of difficult debates in the hemicycle.
The Ministry of Economy and Finance at Bercy, in Paris, November 15, 2022 / JOEL SAGET / AFP/Archives
Between key articles deleted and “60 billion” of new tax revenues integrated according to the balance sheet of the rebellious president of the commission Eric Coquerel (company superprofits, capital income, etc.), the prospect is enough to scold the head of the government.
“The effort that everyone must make cannot turn into a +Lépine+ tax competition”replied Michel Barnier in the JDD, defending “balance” of the 60 billion in savings theoretically distributed by its text between 20 billion in new revenue and 40 billion in spending reductions.
« Pari » of “the discussion”
A government source imagined on Sunday the debates would be held at least until Wednesday, – “we will see more clearly” -, before possible recourse to 49.3 to stop a hemorrhage. “We are betting on letting the discussion unfold”underlined the Prime Minister, hinting at recourse to 49.3 “in the event of a parliamentary blockage”.
The deputy of La France Insoumise (LFI) and president of the finance committee of the National Assembly, Eric Coquerel, at the National Assembly in Paris, October 16, 2024 / Bertrand GUAY / AFP
It remains to be seen what defines a “blockage”. The left seems to be keen to make the timing argument difficult to invoke by rationalizing the number of amendments (between a hundred and around 470 per group). For comparison, the Republicans (LR) tabled more than 700 amendments, and nearly 3,500 were on the menu on Sunday evening (some will be withdrawn or declared inadmissible).
The idea for the left is not to prolong the debates too much, and if possible to vote on a text which would move from the draft“austerity” to a text « NFP-compatible ». “It’s playable”estimated Sunday Eric Coquerel (LFI).
Conversely, some in Macron imagine a scenario where debates drag on in the Assembly, and where the government invokes constitutional deadlines to send the text without a vote to the Senate. The majority are clearly more comfortable there for Michel Barnier.
Social security, another battle
Paradoxically, LFI has also prepared a preliminary rejection motion which would end the debates on Monday, but could also strategically withdraw it. Especially since if it were actually put to the vote, it would have little chance of passing against the government coalition and the RN group which would vote ” against “according to the president-delegate Jean-Philippe Tanguy, contacted by AFP.
Marine Le Pen, president of the National Rally (RN) parliamentary group, and Jean-Philippe Tanguy, RN deputy, at the National Assembly, October 1, 2024 in Paris / ALAIN JOCARD / AFP/Archives
The far-right group also wants to achieve victories, such as the removal of electricity tax increases, while the government plans to increase it ” beyond “ of 32 euros per megawatt hour. A perspective also opposed by LR deputies and the Ensemble pour la République group (ex-Renaissance) which will propose returning to the 32 euro mark.
More broadly, the president of the National Rally Jordan Bardella deplored in a column in Le Figaro that growth is “the truly great forgotten one” efforts to reduce deficits. He called for loosening the normative constraints that weigh on businesses.
The government will also have to manage other desires in its camp, between deputies from the right wing of Renaissance who want to remove its surtax on large businesses, and those from MoDem who wish to perpetuate that on high incomes.
The Minister of Relations with Parliament Nathalie Delattre promised a “government listening to parliamentarians”, “but in responsibility for the economic recovery of the country”. She is due to receive MPs from the coalition on Monday at 8:00 p.m., with an expected visit from Michel Barnier.
Especially since the executive will also have to manage the difficult equation of the Social Security budget, the examination of which begins Monday in committee, with even more irritating savings measures in its own camp, on the track of a postponement of the indexation of pensions to inflation, as well as an increase in certain employer contributions.
