On every election night USA There is an important probability, although remote but not impossible, that is a dream for those most passionate about American politics: that there is a tie of electoral votes between the two candidates.
The vice president and Democratic candidate, Kamala Harrisand the former Republican president Donald Trump (2017-2021) They will face each other this November 5 in elections that are expected to be very close. and in which no scenario can be ruled out.
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How can there be a tie?
The president of the United States is not chosen by the total number of votes obtained at the national level (known as the popular vote), but The Electoral College system is used.
Through this mechanism, each of the 50 states of the country contributes a certain number of electors or electoral votes distributed according to their population.
The vast majority of states give all their votes to the candidate who wins the elections in the state, so that whoever wins in California takes the 54 votes of that state and whoever wins in Wyoming pockets the three votes that are at stake there.
In total, The Electoral College is made up of 538 electoral votes and whoever achieves at least half plus one becomes president. that is, the magic number of 270.
But there is a small detail to take into account. Since 538 is an even number, there is a possibility that Harris and Trump tie at 269 votes each.
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How can the tie be resolved?
The answer is in the Constitution, specifically in the 12th Amendment.
The arbiter that should break the tie between Harris and Trump is the new House of Representativeswhose composition will also be chosen on November 5.
The Lower House should meet in a special session starting January 6 to elect the president.
Then, Each state delegation would have one vote, therefore the weight of California and Wyoming would be exactly the same despite the fact that the first is much more numerous than the second, says Morris Fiorina, professor of political science at Stanford University.
Since there are 50 states, The candidate who achieved 26 votes or more would become the new president of the United States.
Currently, Republicans control precisely 26 state delegations in the House of Representatives (Democrats 22 and there are two ties) and Analysts expect them to retain that majority after the elections.
As there are a greater number of republican delegations, Trump would have a better chance of being president in the event of a tie with Harris, explains Rick Hasen, professor of Political Science at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).
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What would happen to the Vice Presidency?
The election of the vice president, between Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance, It would be decided by the Senate, where all 100 senators would vote, so that the candidate who achieved 51 supports would win.
As there are two separate votes, there could be the unusual case that The president and vice president were from different parties.
The Senate is currently controlled by Democrats, but On November 5, a third of its composition will be renewed.
Can a tie happen?
Never in history has there been a tie in the Electoral College and This remains a very unlikely scenario, but cannot be completely ruled out.
Part of the key is in Nebraska, which along with Maine is the only state that distributes its electoral votes by districts. There, Republicans usually get four votes and Democrats traditionally only get one who comes from the urban area of Omaha.
In a scenario in which Harris defeated Trump in the three pivotal states of the Midwest (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) and If the Republican prevailed in the other key states, Omaha would make the difference between making Harris president by 270 votes or generating a tie at 269.
That’s why Republicans tried to change Nebraska laws so that the state to give all its votes to the winner and thus take Omaha’s vote away from Harris, but their attempt failed in September.
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Another scenario that would result in a tie would be the victory of Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina, and Harris in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin.
But it would be a pretty surprising combination considering the electoral tradition of those states. “Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? No”says Miles Coleman of the University of Virginia Policy Center.
With information from EFE.
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