The scene takes place in Jerusalem, as the Jews prepare to celebrate the New Year, Rosh Hashanah. In a small cafe in West Jerusalem, the television is tuned to Kan 11, the Israeli public channel. “Iran has proven to the whole world that it is only interested in one thing: the destruction of Israel”says an expert in response to a journalist before pressing: “We don’t need any other clues: it’s us or them. » This state of mind is indeed the one that prevails after the 180 missiles sent by Iran, Tuesday October 1, six months after a salvo of 300 projectiles and while the two countries have always avoided directly targeting the territory of the other .
“The head of the octopus of terror”
A few hours after these shots, Benjamin Netanyahu issued a martial declaration: “Iran made a big mistake and will pay the price. We will stick to the rule we have set for ourselves: whoever attacks us, we attack. » “We must strike the head of the octopus of terror, which, in its cowardice, has sent its tentacles (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) to murder us”abounds on X Naftali Bennett, short-lived prime minister in 2021 from the religious Zionist right. Even Yaïr Golan, hope of the Israeli left, speaks of “declaration of war” while, however, calling on the government to respond “resolutely precise and efficient”.
The escalation of October 1 modifies the dynamics of a conflict where Israel’s wars against Hamas and Hezbollah are relegated to second place after the conflict with Iran, which has become Israel’s sworn enemy following the Islamic revolution. “Since becoming supreme leader in 1989, Khamenei has taken a progressive approach to the State of Israel, creating a ‘ring of fire’ to slowly eradicate it», explains Jason Brodsky, researcher in the Iran program at the Middle East Institute, in an article.
Ori Goldberg, an Israeli academic specializing in modern Iran and Shiite revolutionary movements, does not share this analysis: “Iran seeks above all to extend its influence in the region, and annihilating or defeating another state would be counterproductive. Israelis see the Islamic Republic as a kind of Islamic state. The reality is fundamentally different, without this making Iran a liberal, open and pluralist regime, far from it. »
“Israel has no strategy”
At the table of the small café which is quietly rustling, Yoav (first name has been changed) comments on the program playing on the small screen: “Bibi is obsessed with Iran, but that’s mostly because Iran is obsessed with our destruction. If we don’t respond, they’ll walk all over us. » This young 26-year-old reservist has just been called up to join the Israeli forces in Lebanon, after having served twice along the northern border in the space of a year.
“Israel formulates its regional policy in response to what it perceives as threats of annihilation from intransigent entitiesanalyse Ori Goldberg. In the past, it was Gamal Abdel Nasser then Anwar El Sadat in Egypt. Today it is Iran. According to this logic, there will always be someone who wants to destroy Israel. »
In coordination with the United States, Israel would consider attacking Iranian oil platforms, or even nuclear installations, according to the Axios website. “Retaliatory strikes on nuclear sites have the potential to inflame the region, and would be counterproductive to rolling back Iran’s highly strengthened, advanced and dispersed nuclear program”says Darya Dolzikova, non-proliferation researcher, on X. “Israel has no strategy and only advances with tactical moves”avance Ori Goldberg.