The global climate summit in Dubai, COP28, will begin marked by the discouraging result of the first assessment of the Paris Agreement and the controversy surrounding the presidency of the event by Sultan Al Jaber, executive director of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. Dabi.
The Dubai global climate summit, COP28will be held between next Thursday, November 30 and December 12 with the expectation of achieving commitments to meet the goals of the Paris Agreements signed in 2015which established the need to maintain the increase in global temperature below 2°C and to strive for limit it to 1.5°C by the end of the centurywith respect to preindustrial era.
Furthermore, following the Paris Agreement, the UN climate expert group (IPCCfor its acronym in English) called for limiting warming to 1.5 degrees to avoid irreparable consequences, such as the disappearance of islands or coastal areas under the sea.
Now, the central objective of the summit, once again, will be to make commitments to contain warming within limits compatible with life on the planet. But the event begins marked by uncertainties, after a discouraging first assessment of the Paris Agreement. In September, in its first official evaluation, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) warned that the world is not on track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement to contain global warming to below 2 degrees.
Based on this document, the countries participating in COP28 must complete the first round of evaluation of the agreement, called Global Stocktake (GST) or global balance sheet, and decide what to do to address the situation.
Among these measures, experts expect new ambitions or mitigation actions (reduction of emissions) at a global level, which, in turn, involves raising the reduction plans presented by each country (NDCfor its acronym in English).
According to scientists, limiting warming involves getting closer to the net zero emissions by 2050something that will only be possible with a systemic transformation of all sectors, the abandonment of fossil fuels and the promotion of renewables, among others.
This will be where conflicting positions will once again confront each other: that of the countries that live off fossil fuels, that of those that see renewables as the solution to the climate crisis – and their energy dependence – and that of those without resources to face the transition. ecological and, in turn, more punished by the effects of a warming to which they have barely contributed.
In this context, it is especially relevant that the presidency of COP28, which will lead the negotiations, is in the hands of Sultan Al Jaberexecutive director of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), the world’s twelfth largest crude oil producer.
Their work, questioned by environmentalists due to their relationship with the oil industry, will not be easy, since at the COP28 preparatory meeting in October the great differences in approach and priorities of the parties when it comes to confronting the climate crisis were evident. .
Among these different approaches, those of powers such as China, United States, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia o to European Union.
The big question is whether the final resolution of COP28 will include a clear reference to the end of fossil fuels or will be limited, as in the two previous summits, to mentioning the need to promote renewables, put an end to coal plants exempt from of mitigation and eliminate oil or gas subsidies, yes, to the extent of each country’s possibilities.
According to him “Emissions Gap Report“2023 of the UN Environment Program (UNEP), the current policies of countries to reduce GHG emissions are insufficient and lead the Earth to a temperature increase of 3 degrees.
Thus, to comply with the Paris Agreement, global agreements would be needed to reduce emissions between 28 and 42% between now and 2030, according to the document, published days before the start of COP28.
The recipe to achieve this is, according to the president of COP28, triple renewables and double efficiency, limit methane emissions and “accelerate decarbonization ambitions in the sectors with the highest emissions by 2030”. Left out of his speech, for now, is the need to set a date for the beginning of the end of coal, oil and gas, the highest demand of environmentalists and scientists around the world to be able to face the climate crisis with guarantees of success.