With around 180,000 French people taking to the streets on Sunday November 12, the march against anti-Semitism will have taken up the challenge of mobilization which was far from won. “There were few organizations, banners, demands,” notes Jean-Daniel Lévy, of the Harris Interactive institute. “This is a France that is not used to demonstrating, coming spontaneously to express an emotion,” he notes to underline, in the absence of a mass effect, the sincerity of the event.
However, specialists remain cautious about the scope of this march, noting the low participation of young people and people of Muslim culture or religion. Brice Teinturier, from Ipsos, considers the mobilization “consequential”, but in a context which remains marked by “a great confusion of minds”, with a form of equivalence granted to the massacres of October 7 and the bombings in Gaza. “Hamas is not the fruit of colonization policy; it is a terrorist organization that advocates the destruction of the State of Israel. There is a part of opinion on this point which puts things into perspective, which refuses to see it. »
So the evolution of the humanitarian situation in this territory could contribute to fueling divisions in French society. “It is too early to measure the real scope of the march,” assures Jean-Daniel Lévy.
On the other hand, for the political life of the country, this November 12 will be a milestone. A tipping point, some experts even go so far as to think. “The National Rally (RN) and La France insoumise (LFI) are in some way going the opposite way,” analyzes Brice Teinturier. By participating in the demonstration, the first continues its approach of trivialization while with its positions, LFI becomes radicalized. Jean-Luc Mélenchon stands aside. »
The major Ipsos “French Fractures” survey from September already showed that the French overwhelmingly (60%) judge that the main left-wing party “stirs up violence”. A score much higher than that of the RN (52%). This extremism allows the former presidential candidate to consolidate part of his base but prevents him from progressing and sows doubt, including within the left and his own political family. Green MP Delphine Batho denounced, on Monday, “the headlong flight” of the rebellious leader.
This strategy of isolation began in July, when LFI refused to call for calm among the rioters after the death of young Nahel. “We went in a few months from a right-left divide to an opposition of LFI to all the other parties,” explains Frédéric Dabi, of Ifop, whose latest study shows that the divide is increasing between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the rest of his camp. Sunday evening, he again made this cut, castigating the failure of the demonstration “of the entire right and the extreme right, however united” even though his Nupes allies participated.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the political spectrum, Marine Le Pen is scoring points. “She emerges strengthened from this sequence,” believes Brice Teinturier. According to the latest Ifop study for La Tribune-Dimanche on voting intentions for the European elections, the RN widens the gap “spectacularly”, notably with LR which is weakening and Renaissance, which it exceeds by 7 points. “By participating in the march, the RN trivializes itself while marching separately, meaning that it is still the anti-system party. It’s a double winner,” concludes Brice Teinturier.