ANPNSC leader Pieter Omtzigt
NOS Nieuws•vandaag, 06:24
Four weeks before the House of Representatives elections, the previously formed top 3 still keep each other in balance in the Peilingwijzer. In this weighted average of the polls by I&O Research and Ipsos/EenVandaag, the VVD has 25 to 29 seats, the New Social Contract has 23 to 29 and GroenLinks/PvdA has 21 to 25 seats.
The difference with the last party is therefore so small – and within the margin of error for I&O Research – that, according to political scientist Tom Louwerse, one can still speak of three parties on more or less equal footing. Louwerse is the creator of the Peilingwijzer.
Behind these three parties are the PVV on 16 to 20 seats and BBB, the big loser of the rise of Pieter Omtzigt, on 10 to 14. All other parties remain below 10 seats. Coalition parties D66 and CDA would be hit hard with 6 to 10 and 3 to 5 seats respectively. For D66, this involves a loss of about 16 seats compared to the result 2.5 years ago.
‘Mainly confirmation of existing preference’
The establishment of Omtzigt’s new party at the end of August led to a political landslide, but since then, according to Louwerse, there have been little or no shifts. At most, NSC has fallen back about 3 seats compared to that spectacular start. The war between Israel and Hamas has also not changed the stable picture of the past two months.
“In our seat poll we hardly see any effect of the conflict on voting behavior,” confirms researcher Asher van der Schelde of I&O Research. “Voters hardly switch between parties for that specific reason. The conflict is also hardly mentioned on substantive issues. 9 percent say that it plays a role in the party choice in the parliamentary elections, but this is more about confirmation of a preference that they already had.”
Of the other parties, not one comes close to 10 seats. The closest are the Party for the Animals at 6 to 8 seats, the SP at 4 to 6 and the Christian Union, Volt and Forum for Democracy at 3 to 5. Behind this are the SGP and Denk with 2 to 4 and JA21 with 1 to 3 seats. Bij1 and 50Plus still have a 0 to 1 seat in the Peilingwijzer and therefore have to fear for their place in the House of Representatives.
Research agencies such as Ipsos emphasize that their polls are not a prediction of the outcome. The preferences of most voters have not yet been determined. According to I&O Research, 23 percent of voters are still completely undecided.