War in Ukraine: weariness

Rasputitsa – this “season of bad roads”, in Russian – is not the only obstacle which risks soon hampering the maneuvers of the Ukrainian army. As the prospect of a third year of conflict looms, fears of a decline in Western support are growing. In Slovakia, where the populist Robert Fico – who promised to no longer deliver “a single ammunition” to kyiv – has just been tasked with forming a government. And in the United States, where the agreement in the Senate which made it possible to avoid a paralysis of the federal administration was concluded at the cost of sacrificing a component of aid to Ukraine.

These bad signals come on top of Poland’s decision to cut off arms deliveries and numerous American polls calling for a focus on illegal immigration rather than a distant war. What is there to really doubt about the commitment of Ukraine’s allies? No, we must not exaggerate the “weariness” that has gripped Westerners – in fact that would be playing into the hands of Moscow, which is just waiting for that. Robert Fico only obtained 23% of the votes and Donald Trump, the most pro-Russian candidate for the American nomination, is closer to being convicted by the courts than to a second term. As for the support of the Polish population for Ukrainian refugees, it remains strong.

These early warnings show that the pressure to find paths to a just peace will only increase. But letting go of kyiv today would be a moral and political mistake. Because the conflict will not end for lack of American or European support. This would neglect the will of Ukrainians who are fighting for the unity of their country. The only peace possible is that which will result from the victory of international law over force.

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