“A much-needed deleveraging continues. The conclusion of Patricia Ferrand, president of Unédic, has the merit of being clear. The organization responsible for managing unemployment insurance in France shared its financial forecasts for 2025 on Tuesday, June 13. And its prospects are rather good: a 30% drop in the regime’s debt which was 61 billion euros. euros at the end of 2022 and is estimated at 42 billion at the end of 2025.
This reduction reassures the representatives of the organization and creates “the right conditions to deal with possible economic shocks”, advances Jean-Eudes Tesson, vice-president. Despite the rise in rates, the cost of Unédic’s debt now represents less than 1% of unemployment insurance revenue.
After a positive financial balance of 4.3 billion euros in 2022, the first since 2008, a surplus of 4.4 billion is expected for 2023. However, the unemployment compensation system is still far from having reimbursed all of the expenses related to short-time work during the health crisis. As a reminder, before the Covid period, in 2019, the unemployment insurance debt was estimated at 37 billion euros.
A rather favorable economic situation
According to Unédic representatives, these figures can be explained by several factors linked to the economic situation. First, “the favorable dynamics of wages would contribute to a marked growth in unemployment insurance contributions”, explains the organization.
In addition, this trend is observed thanks to a higher increase in revenue than in expenditure, due in particular to the latest reforms. First, that of 2021, with the change in the calculation of the daily reference salary, the basis for unemployment benefit; then that of 2023, which took effect on February 1 and reduced the duration of unemployment benefit by 25%.
Stability of job creations
In terms of job creation, Unédic anticipates a certain stability. Despite 90,000 jobs created in the first quarter of 2023 according to INSEE figures, the unemployment insurance body does not foresee any new creations by the end of 2023, and only 28,000 creations in 2024. “The recovery of the economic activity expected in 2025 would be accompanied by an improvement in the situation of the labor market”, adds the body, with 132,000 new jobs.
Finally, the number of job seekers receiving benefits should stabilize at 2.5 million in 2023 and drop to 2.3 million in 2025.
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