The Ukrainian counter-offensive has started, how is it going?

ReutersUkrainian soldiers at the front near Bachmut

NOS Nieuws•vandaag, 17:04

How effective will the Russian Air Force be? And how effective the Ukrainian air defense? According to former Army Commander Mart de Kruif, these are the crucial issues that will determine how the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which has really started in recent days, will turn out. “It’s a gut feeling, but I think we’ll know more in a week.”

The Ukrainians are this week on the attack in several places along the 800 to 900 kilometer long front. The battle is intense and bloody. It is still unclear what the main goal of the offensive will be, also for De Kruif. “The Zaporizhia region is the most logical option. Then you can push on to the Sea of ​​Azov and break the land connection between Russia and Crimea. But you can also gain a lot of ground in Luhansk and then head north towards Kharkiv.”

Ignorance

According to De Kruif, Ukraine will do everything it can to keep the Russians in ignorance for as long as possible. That has several reasons.

The outcome of wars and battles is often determined by reserves, because they are often experienced and well-trained soldiers. Russia will want to deploy its reserves where the danger of a breakthrough is greatest, thinks De Kruif. Ukraine will do everything it can to mislead the Russians so that the chances of Ukrainians encountering Russian reserves are as small as possible, or that those reserves will arrive too late.

In this connection, the curvature of the front line is in favor of Ukraine and against the Russians. “Ukraine can move units relatively quickly across its own territory from north to south and from south to north. Russia has the problem of the outside line. Because of the curvature in the front, they almost always have to go around the outside.”

NOSSituation war Ukraine June 7

Fighting is currently taking place in various places. “It is not yet clear where the main attack will come,” says De Kruif. “You force Russia to constantly make the choice: where am I going to deploy the reserves or deploy them myself to prevent a breakthrough?”

Breakthrough

The British Ministry of Defense reported today in its daily update that the Ukrainians have broken through Russian lines in several places. According to De Kruif, that doesn’t say much.

“You always have several lines that are about twenty kilometers apart. So you also have to get through that second line. In the end you have to concentrate a lot of units on a very small area. That also makes you vulnerable.”

Air Force

This brings de Kruif to the second reason that Ukrainians want to keep the main goal of their offensive hidden for as long as possible.

One of the biggest concerns on the Ukrainian side is that if they have that breakthrough, the Russian air force will intervene en masse. So Ukraine will also have to position most of its air defenses there, including the fighters that the Russian air force must keep away from there. “You have to have all your resources in the right place at the right time. You don’t just do that, it’s a matter of days and weeks to plan it.”

Ukrainian losses

Meanwhile, images are circulating on social media of tanks supplied by the West, which are being destroyed by the Russians. De Kruif also saw the images. “Even a Leopard 2 can break down. Kurds in Northern Syria have already disabled a Turkish Leopard 2. A vehicle is only effective if you use it properly, use the terrain correctly, otherwise you are always vulnerable.”

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