Welles Nite Game About Bakhmut Ingestion: Here’s What’s Going On | War in Ukraine

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May 22, 2023 at 7:22 PM

There were conflicting reports from the front in Ukraine last weekend. The Russians claim to have captured the city of Bakhmut after months of fighting, but Ukraine says this is utter nonsense. Five questions about the yes-no game between the two countries.

What happened last weekend?

The Wagner Group mercenary army, which fights on behalf of Russia in Ukraine, said it had captured the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut on Saturday. With that, there would finally be a winner on paper after a battle that lasted months and claimed thousands of victims.

But where Russia waved the flag and a state broadcaster spoke of “mission complete”, the Ukrainians disagreed. “Bakhmut was not conquered by the Russians. No other interpretation is possible,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday.

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What is correct about that?

So one says one thing, while the other says the opposite. The truth seems to lie somewhere in the middle. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia occupies almost the entire city. Ukraine is said to have largely withdrawn, but still holds a small part.

This part, in the southwestern tip of the city, is right next to a major highway connection. That highway, the T0504, has been used for months to evacuate the wounded and to provide Ukrainian soldiers with sufficient supplies.

The words from the Russian camp therefore do not seem entirely correct, although it is beyond dispute that the Russians have taken almost the entire city.

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What is Ukraine doing now?

The fact that Ukraine has largely withdrawn its troops from Bakhmut does not mean that they are gone. The armed forces continue the battle just outside the city.

According to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, troops are advancing on the north and south sides of the city. The goal is to surround the city.

By surrounding the city and Russian soldiers, the Ukrainians can cut off the supply line. As a result, the supply of bullets, for example, could come to a standstill. Injured persons cannot be transported. “This is how we can destroy the enemy,” said Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar.

Ukrainian troops fire on Russian troops in Bakhmut. Photo: AP

What makes Bakhmut so important?

Bakhmut’s importance is not so much in the strategic. According to the Russians, the city would be a stepping stone to a further invasion of the Donetsk basin, but military experts question that strategic advantage.

A conquest of the city should primarily be seen as a moral victory for the Russians. It would be the first time since last summer that the Russians have captured a Ukrainian city. A bright spot for them, after months of setbacks for the Russian armed forces.

What now?

With the Russians virtually in control of Bakhmut, the next step is to keep control of the city. This leads to difficult choices for the Russians: for example, will you strengthen the city’s defenses by moving more troops here?

Such a choice can entail risks. It is now an open secret that the Ukrainians are preparing for a massive counter-attack. If the Russians choose to bring more troops to Bakhmut, you take them elsewhere. That could weaken the defense line elsewhere.

For the time being, the Russians seem to be opting for that option. The British Ministry of Defence, which provides a daily update on the progress of the war, said on Saturday that the Russians had sent four battalions to Bakhmut. The ministry called that a “remarkable effort” to defend Bakhmut.

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