The ravages of the climatic phenomenon, in its different variants, known globally as “El Niño”. (AP)
Within the framework of a “sudden and unexpected” global warming of the oceans, the international scientific community has warned about the possibility of facing an upcoming “El Niño” phenomenon with extreme consequences.
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The effects of this climatological event, not generated by man, could increase the temperature to great levels between 2023 and 2024.
Related to severe meteorological events, this phenomenon has also caused the start of forest fires, coral bleaching, and polar melting, among others.
Specialists warn of serious consequences in the face of the formation of an upcoming “El Niño” phenomenon. (Getty Images)
The last record of the formation of “El Niño” was in 2016. The impacts of this, with information from the end of the 19th century, occurred worldwide.
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It is, fundamentally, “a change in the strength and direction of the trade winds that blow from east to west in the Pacific Ocean.”
“This causes the warm water found in the western part of the Pacific Ocean to move towards the central and eastern Pacific region,” explained Ángel Adames Corraliza, a professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Wisconsin, to the BBC.
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In this sense, he also specified that the agitation of the warm waters generates a “significant” increase in the oceanic temperature of the eastern and central Pacific. As he explained, these “are more conducive to heavy downpours and floods.”
Citizens transport a motorcycle taxi through an area flooded by Cyclone Yaku, in Piura. (Reuters)
“This has consequences for the hydrological cycle on the west coast of South America, especially in Peru and Ecuador. There are even some direct effects on the atmospheric circulation that cause changes in the weather conditions and in the climate in general both in North and South America and in other parts of the world as well”, he pointed out.
On the other hand, the expert in climatological phenomena pointed out that the start of fires and droughts can be expected in generally rainy regions such as northern Australia; while in communities such as the west coast of South America, characterized by deserts and a dry climate, intense rains would occur.
The ‘El Niño’ Phenomenon kept the north of the country in suspense.
“The first impact that is seen is warming off the coast of Peru. This year, if the record is not broken, it is almost done. It is extremely hot and we have seen downpours with an intensity and strength that are not commonly seen, except when you have these very high temperatures, causing tremendous flooding, landslides and loss of life and material resources, ”he said.
On the other hand, he indicated that during El Niño years, the risk of hurricanes increases on the west coast of Mexico and Hawaii. He added that scientists are investigating whether this phenomenon also causes droughts in the Caribbean, during the boreal summer, as there are strong indications of this situation and its impact in Puerto Rico, Cuba and the Dominican Republic.
The projections in the country for “Coastal El Niño”, for now, record that this phenomenon will develop, at least, until the winter of this year with a moderate magnitude.
However, it is not ruled out that having characteristics of a strong warm condition in May, said the Multisectoral Commission of the National Study of El Niño Phenomenon (Enfen).
Report No. 06-2023 of the ENFEN Multisectoral Commission maintains the status of “Coastal El Niño Alert”. (Enfen)
“The persistence of the 2023 coastal El Niño would be mainly due to the arrival of warm Kelvin waves, which would maintain the anomalous warming. (…) For next summer 2024, the commission estimates that for the Central Pacific (Niño 3.4 region), El Niño has a probability of 65% (28% of weak magnitude, 23% moderate, 13% strong and 1% very strong)”, it was reported.
In addition, for the May-July 2023 quarter, “rainfall above normal is estimated in the north and center coast, as well as in the north-western highlands and northern jungle of the country, with the rains in May being the determinants for the departments of Tumbes and Piura mainly”.